Prisco’s Week 7 NFL picks: Packers top Texans, Vikings upend Lions to remain unbeaten

It’s momentum time for me picking games.

After a slow start, the sports betting pace has picked up as I went 8-6 against the spread and 12-2 straight up last week. That takes my ATS record to 46-43-3 and my straight-up record to 51-41. I’ll take it. 

This week features a lot of high-profile games, including a rematch of the Super Bowl from last February where the Kansas City Chiefs beat the San Francisco 49ers. This time, the game is in San Francisco and not on a neutral field, which gives the 49ers a big edge. But is it enough to pick them? 

Read on and find out who I pick as well as all my other sports betting selections. It’s the third Sunday in October, which means we should continue to have a better grasp of this season — at least it sure felt that way for Week 6. Let’s keep the momentum going. 

All odds courtesy of Caesars sportsbook.

Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Prime Video)

This is the return of Sean Payton to face his former team. But unlike those Saints teams, this Denver team is limited on offense. They do play good defense, but will be without star corner Patrick Surtain. It will be Spencer Rattler at quarterback for the Saints after he made his first start last week. I think he will play solid football here and the Saints will beat their former coach. 

Pick: Saints 23, Broncos 16

Bonus: Matt Severance, who is on a 21-6 roll on Broncos games, has released his best bets for the Week 7 “Thursday Night Football’ game. Severance is leaning the Under total but who is he backing to cover? Find out right here at SportsLine.

Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET (NFL Network, fubo)

This is the dog game of the week. Both teams have major issues, but at least the Patriots have the excuse of starting a rookie quarterback in Drake Maye. With Jacksonville being the last-ranked passing defense, he might hit them with some big plays. But Jacksonville is the better team and Trevor Lawrence will play a little better. 

Pick: Jaguars 29, Patriots 21

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo try for free)

This is a long trip for a Seattle team coming off three straight losses. The defense is struggling. That’s not a good thing against a good Atlanta offense. Look for a lot of points here as both quarterbacks play well. But it’s Kirk Cousins who plays better for the Falcons. 

Pick: Falcons 34, Seahawks 30

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

The Bills are playing on a short week after beating the Jets. The Titans are coming off a bad loss to the Colts at home. Their offense has been lifeless for much of the season, while the Bills can roll up points. But I think the Tennessee defense will keep the Titans in this one. It’s closer than expected. 

Pick: Bills 23, Titans 17

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

The battle of Ohio isn’t what we thought it might be when the season started. The Browns are awful on offense, while the Bengals have struggled on defense. Something has to give here. I say Joe Burrow plays well and the Bengals defense will to continue what other defenses have done to the Browns this season, which is to make Deshaun Watson struggle. Bengals win it. 

Pick: Bengals 21, Browns 17

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

This is game featuring two of the better young passers in the league in C.J. Stroud and Jordan Love. Both can put up big numbers in the passing game. The Texans are playing consecutive road games, which is tough. The Packers will get the best of it as Love wins a shootout with Stroud. 

Pick: Packers 34, Texans 30

Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts (-3.5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo try for free)

The Dolphins are off their bye, which they badly needed, while the Colts are coming off a road victory over the Titans. Anthony Richardson will be back for the Colts at quarterback, while Tyler Huntley will start for the Dolphins. Both of these teams have had defensive issues stopping the run, so look for the Colts with the better run game to find a way. 

Pick: Colts 21, Dolphins 17

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo try for free)

This is for first place in the division with the Vikings coming off the bye and the Lions coming off a blowout of the Cowboys on the road. The Lions lost Aidan Hutchinson with a broken leg, which will impact their pass rush in a big way. Look for Sam Darnold to light it up throwing to ustin Jefferson. The Lions will get theirs as well with Jared Goff playing well. It will be a fun one to watch, but the Vikings will win it. 

Pick: Vikings 31, Lions 26

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo try for free)

The Eagles didn’t look good in beating the Browns last week, while the Giants lacked offense in their loss to the Bengals. The Giants defense is playing well, while the Eagles offense is not. The Giants will get back receiver Malik Nabers in this one, which will matter in a big way. The Giants win it in an upset.  

Pick: Giants 24, Eagles 20

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

The Rams are coming off a bye, which they needed for injury reasons. The Raiders have lost two straight and the change to Aidan O’Connell at quarterback improved the offense but didn’t get a victory. How does the trade of Davante Adams impact this team? The Rams are the better team and Matt Stafford will be the better quarterback. Rams take it. 

Pick: Rams 27, Raiders 19

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

This is a game featuring two defenses that have issues with two offenses that can score. So look for a shootout of sorts between Jayden Daniels and Andy Dalton. In the end, I’m betting it’s Daniels that gets the best of it as Washington bounces back from losing to the Ravens last week. 

Pick: Commanders 35, Panthers 27

Kansas City Chiefs at San Francisco 49ers (-1)

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo try for free)

This is a big game for both teams, the Super Bowl rematch. The Chiefs are coming off a bye, while the 49ers played last Thursday so it negates it some. The 49ers have been struggling on defense, which isn’t a good thing against Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs are playing well on defense. That carries over as they win a tough road game. 

Pick: Chiefs 27, 49ers 23

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, fubo try for free)

The Jets made a move to go get Davante Adams, who should help the offense if he plays. The Steelers have a quarterback issue again as it looks like Russell Wilson is taking first-team reps. No matter who plays, it will be the running game and defense that key this game for the Steelers. But the Jets will get back to playing good run defense and Aaron Rodgers will do enough to win a tough road game.

Pick: Jets 23, Steelers 17

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN, fubo try for free) 

This is a big game between two of the better teams in the league right now. Both offenses can roll up big points in a hurry. This might be one of those games where the last team with the ball wins. Being at home and on Monday, I’ll go with Baker Mayfield to win a shootout. 

Pick: Bucs 34, Ravens 31

Monday, 9 p.m. ET (ESPN+)

The Chargers are out on the road for the second straight week after winning at Denver. The Cardinals are home for the first time in three weeks. Arizona is undermanned on defense, which shows up weekly — even if they play hard. I’m betting that the Chargers to win it behind their offense. Kyler Murray won’t keep up as the Chargers defense continues to play well. 

Pick: Chargers 27, Cardinals 14