Private-Sector Job Growth Slowed in November. What Does That Mean for the Jobs Report?

Slow job growth in some industries helped weigh on private sector job growth in November, as investors monitor the labor market for weakness.

The ADP National Employment Report showed that private sector payrolls increased by 146,000 jobs in November, less than the 163,000 projected by economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal. The results are also down from October’s numbers, which were revised down to 184,000 from the originally reported 233,000 totals.

The survey data from the private-sector payroll provider showed that manufacturers reduced their headcount by 26,000 in November.

“While overall growth for the month was healthy, industry performance was mixed,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP. “Manufacturing was the weakest we’ve seen since spring. Financial services and leisure and hospitality were also soft.”

Data May Not Reflect Hiring Trends in Upcoming Jobs Report

The jobs numbers come ahead of the scheduled release of the November U.S. payroll report on Friday, which is expected to show employment rebounding after storm and labor strike disruptions. Federal Reserve officials are watching labor data ahead of their upcoming December meeting, where employment trends will be a consideration when they debate whether to lower rates again. 

While the ADP report came in lower than expected, that may not be the case for the government data, one economist said. Diane Swonk, KPMG’s chief economist, said that the government and ADP reports diverged last month.

“The [ADP] data no longer acts as a forecast for the BLS survey but is an important independent look at the labor market,” Swonk wrote in a post on social media platform X. “It was not as suppressed by storms & strikes as we saw in the BLS survey, which means it is likely understating the rebound in the official data.”