Projected College Football Playoff Seeding and Bracket After Conference Championships

There was a path for the College Football Playoff selection committee to have a stress-free Saturday of watching conference championship games. As they followed along with the action from noon ET until past midnight at the Gaylord Hotel in Grapevine, Texas, there was probably a (not insignificant) portion in the back of every member’s mind rooting for all the favorites, too.

Alas, this is college football where normalcy is to expect the unexpected. This weekend, that means Dawgs and underdogs throwing a wrench into what could have been a clean bracket scenario. 

Though this committee won’t have anywhere near the level of controversy to sort through compared to last season, it will have a difficult task. Who’s in and who’s out of the 12-team playoff is just one concern as there are significant seeding implications to sort out, too. 

Oh, and instead of upsetting one fan base, you might well upset entire conferences who feel slighted. Such is the nature of the job, no pressure.

After nine conference title games this weekend, here are Sports Illustrated’s projected brackets ahead of Selection Sunday.

First-Round Byes

No. 1 Oregon (Big Ten champion, automatic bid)

No. 2 Georgia (SEC champion, automatic bid)

No. 3 Arizona State Sun Devils (Big 12 champion, automatic bid)

No. 4 Boise State (Mountain West champion, automatic bid)

First-Round Matchups

No. 12 SMU (at-large) at No. 5 Notre Dame (at-large)

No. 11 Clemson (ACC champion, automatic bid) at No. 6 Penn State (at-large)

No. 10 Indiana (at-large) at No. 7 Texas (at-large)

No. 9 Tennessee (at-large) at No. 8 Ohio State (at-large)

What to Watch For

Does the ACC indeed get two bids and push Alabama out of the bracket? It seems impossible to justify Bama over SMU, but there will be some held breath in Dallas waiting to see for sure.

How does the committee rank Texas, Ohio State and Tennessee? A good case can be made for putting the Volunteers ahead of the Longhorns, but dropping Texas from No. 2 all the way out of a home field first-round game would be pretty drastic after an overtime SEC championship game loss.

An Ohio State–Indiana rematch in Columbus could be in the mix, but it seems like a game the committee will try hard to avoid. We just saw that game on Nov. 23, and it wasn’t overly compelling.

The ACC results should end the rhetorical crossfire between the Big 12 and Mountain West about which champion deserves a first-round bye—because they should both get them now, given the ACC result. 

First-Round Byes

No. 1 Oregon (Big Ten champion, automatic bid): Rose Bowl quarterfinal

No. 2 Georgia (SEC champion, automatic bid): Sugar Bowl quarterfinal

No. 3 Boise State (Mountain West champion, automatic bid): Fiesta Bowl quarterfinal

No. 4 Arizona State (Big 12 champion, automatic bid): Peach Bowl quarterfinal

First-Round Matchups

No. 12 Clemson (ACC champion, automatic bid) at No. 5 Texas (at-large)

No. 11 SMU (at-large) at No. 6 Penn State (at-large)

No. 10 Indiana (at-large) at No. 7 Notre Dame (at-large) 

No. 9 Tennessee (at-large) at No. 8 Ohio State (at-large)

First team out: Alabama Crimson Tide

Second team out: Miami Hurricanes