Psychologists Say Taylor Swift’s Marketing Mirrors Gambling Psychology

We all know her – whether as your childhood celebrity favorite, the world’s richest female musician, or the ultimate WAG (Wives and girlfriends) of the NFL. Taylor Swift has become one of the most prominent figures of the 21^st century, thanks to her versatile songwriting and strategic business skills that have shattered records worldwide. 

But what’s her secret to not only maintaining such a loyal and strong fan base, but also growing it continuously over the years? How does she keep fans so engaged and entertained? Rumor has it (according to Swifties) that Taylor may be using gambling psychology to keep fans hooked. We spoke with two behavioral psychologists to find out more:  

• Dr. Jeffrey Derevensky, Ph.D.: A professor at McGill University – often referred to as the “Harvard of Canada” – specializes in gambling behaviors, particularly among youth. His expertise spans prevention, treatment, and understanding the psychological mechanisms and social influences on gambling behaviors.  

• Nicole Ricken: A clinical psychologist and psychotherapist, she specializes in navigating various behavioral challenges. She has experience in behavioral intervention, clinical research and publications, NPOs, and was a TEDx speaker.

Gambling Psychology: What is it? 

What is intermittent reinforcement?  

“It’s a scenario where when you get reinforced periodically, your mind is more likely to keep engaging in that behavior. Using a gambling analogy, it’s like putting money in a slot machine and winning occasionally. This differs from continuous reinforcement – where you’re putting money in a slot machine and winning every time.” 

How do you think intermittent reinforcement would show up through slot machines? 

“Intermittent reinforcement says you’re going to win occasionally without knowing when. Slot machines use this by adding ‘near misses,’ like two matching symbols with the third just above, encouraging people to keep playing. In places like Las Vegas, straightforward machines – where you either win or lose – are less popular than those using intermittent reinforcement. People tend to play more on machines where wins are unpredictable.” 

How does anticipation keep players around, if they know they won’t win each time? 

“There’s a number of factors. One, they’re hoping the next push of the button will bring a win. Two, the machines give a little bit of money – not always the big jackpot – which keeps players going, over and over, until people run out of money. That’s how these machines make money. 

To keep people engaged, you have to ensure they win a certain amount. Many slot machines advertise a 93% payout, meaning that if you play 100 times, you’d win back 93 times. If you didn’t win anything, you’d stop playing or switch machines. Keeping that level of intermittent reinforcement ensures you stay engaged.” 

How Taylor Swift is Utilizing Gambling Psychology 

It’s been rumored that Taylor Swift’s marketing tactics resemble gambling psychology, specifically the concept of intermittent reinforcement. She acts like a rewards system or the “slot machine”, leaving clues in her imagery, lyrics, songs, visuals, and performances. 

Similar to a slot machine, her unexpected album or single announcements keep fans engaged by dropping just enough hints to keep them guessing and wanting more. Do you think these tactics mirror intermittent reinforcement by providing unpredictable rewards that maintain fans’ interest? Why or why not? 

“Yes, absolutely. Intermittent reinforcement means giving unpredictable rewards (due to random intervals) after specific behaviors. Applied to Taylor Swift, she gives her fans just enough to keep them hooked and engaged, and she releases a little bit unpredictably. This approach creates and triggers dopamine spikes because fans don’t know when they’ll receive a “reward”, keeping them motivated to stay engaged.  

Her strategy – like surprise releases and Easter eggs – plays a big part here, because it mirrors the same kind of reward schedule, or intermittent reinforcement, used in casinos. Whether or not Taylor is aware that she’s using this tactic, it’s happening. I know she’s very intelligent and strategic. But if it works, it works!” 

Can you explain how intermittent reinforcement creates a cycle of anticipation and reward? How might this manifest in a fan’s engagement with Taylor Swift? 

“Anticipation is key in Taylor Swift’s marketing, similar to gambling. Fans are constantly waiting for new albums, tickets, merchandise, or drops, and sometimes the anticipation itself feels better than the actual reward. This keeps them engaged, always chasing the next “win”, with dopamine playing a significant role in the process.  

Some sources suggest that the anticipation process releases so much dopamine that the actual reward moment feels less intense than expected. It’s the dopamine surge during the anticipation that acts as the true reinforcement, keeping people engaged and coming back for more.” 

How might Taylor Swift’s strategy of dropping unexpected announcements and clues affect a fan’s long-term engagement and loyalty? 

“From a fan’s perspective, the unexpected rewards Taylor Swift offers – like surprise album drops – feel like a surprise gift and are a key part of the “Taylor Swift fan lore connection”. The unpredictability keeps fans constantly hooked, always hoping that another surprise might come, such as at the VMAs, where fans eagerly anticipate a new release, even if it doesn’t happen for years. 

Importantly, Taylor does eventually deliver, so it’s not just empty hope. She has proved her loyalty to her fans, fulfilling their expectations with new albums, even if there are a few years between releases.” 

This feels similar to a slot machine – players know that eventually, there will be a win, anticipating that moment. Likewise, fans know that Taylor Swift will eventually deliver new content, so they stay engaged, waiting for that next drop, just like players waiting for a slot machine to pay out.  

“Exactly, at some point, someone will win.” 

Another way Taylor Swift’s fan interactions resemble gambling psychology is through a lottery-like dynamic. Throughout her career, she has rewarded a small group of super fans with personal gifts, “Swiftmas” presents, exclusive in-person album listening parties, or even covering student loans. On her current Eras Tour, one lucky fan in each stadium gets her signed “22” hat. 

Given this, how does the psychology of being a super fan, who might receive rare personal interactions or gifts from their idol, compare to those who participate in lotteries or other chance-based activities? Would you say the experiences are similar? 

“It’s very similar in that the more you participate, or the more you invest in being a super fan, the higher your chances of being rewarded by Taylor. Even though it’s rare, you have to be very active to increase your chances. Her approach is unique compared to other artists; I don’t think anyone else has this kind of lottery-like reward system that truly acknowledges and rewards the most dedicated fans. 

Everyone attending the Eras Tour knows she’ll give away her “22” hat because she consistently follows through. This encourages fans to keep investing and buying in – because, just like a lottery, there’s always that small chance of being chosen. But that chance is enough, as fans know they might be rewarded with a “once in a lifetime” opportunity, and she has proven that she delivers on it.” 

The entire Eras Tour experience feels like a game of chance. Will I get the opportunity to attend the Eras Tour, competing with millions of fans for a ticket to a single show? If I do, what are the chances of getting a “22” hat out of 90,000 fans? What are the odds that Taylor will sing my favorite song as the surprise song?  

It seems similar to buying a lottery ticket – there are never the same numbers every time, just different numbers, winners, and locations. Will fans spend more money to attend more shows to increase their chances at all of these things?  

“So true about all the different elements you mentioned. From a fan’s perspective, it’s all about chance. Taylor’s approach is very strategic because it keeps fans coming back. I know fans make their guesses every night about what she’ll play, and they might feel disappointed if it’s not their pick, but they keep coming back to make new guesses the next day.” 

Are there any other forms of gamification that are similar to Taylor Swift’s marketing tactics or fan interactions? 

“Yes, there’s a concept called social reinforcement. In gambling environments, there’s a lot of peer pressure and communities that build up social excitement, which can be very reinforcing.  

Similarly, Taylor Swift fans bond over their shared experiences, and this sense of community amplifies their reward-seeking behavior. This interaction releases oxytocin and serotonin, which are different from dopamine. While dopamine is tied to reinforcement and reward-seeking, social engagement and community connections are more associated with oxytocin and serotonin – the “feel-good” hormones that make social interactions more enjoyable. Being in a social setting like this means experiencing those “feel-good” hormones and getting positive reinforcement from being part of a community that is collectively chasing the dopamine rush. 

Another parallel between Taylor Swift and the gambling experience is escapism. Taylor creates a world for her fans to immerse themselves in and escape for a while, much like the experience of gambling. This can be both positive and negative. It might serve as a way to avoid reality, or it can provide a safe space for those who engage with it.” 

How would oxytocin and serotonin show up in gambling, for example?  

“The casino would be the shared excitement, while the slot machine would be your dopamine rush source. There’s a lot of people involved in the room. You can gamble together or alone, but it’s the community there that creates the excitement.” 

The Negative Psychological Impact of Swifties’ Fan Behaviors 

Do you think there may be any potential negative psychological effects for fans who become too heavily invested in decoding clues and anticipating rewards? 

“I definitely think it can develop into an addictive aspect of being a super fan. Some people spend a lot of time trying to decode and anticipate things, becoming very invested. But it can also become addictive and lead to parasocial relationships between fans and Taylor. At the end of the day, she’s human, and if all of this were to stop for any reason, it could negatively impact those who are deeply invested in the anticipation.” 

Do you think the main factor is the dopamine rush? The ongoing desire for that dopamine boost from finding clues or being a super fan? If Taylor Swift were to retire, how would super fans’ brains react without their usual dopamine rush? 

In the process of being so invested and experiencing that level of dopamine, I think the real danger lies in the obsession with celebrity culture and the development of a parasocial relationship. It’s when a celebrity is placed on a pedestal, and fans feel like they’re owed something from them. This obsession can make people forget that she’s human, achieving incredible things, but they start to expect and demand more from her. Eventually, there will be a time when she may no longer want to continue in the same way. 

There’s been some Reddit threads where fans discussed how Taylor uses slot machine psychology to keep fans engaged. Many Swiftie Redditors shared that it hasn’t felt healthy for them – they’ve experienced massive anxiety or felt inadequate when they couldn’t keep up with her album announcements or decode her clues. Some even said they felt like a “bad fan,” even though, they’re not – Taylor is just highly engaged with her fan base. 

What do you make of this? 

“The obsession, in general, can be a slippery slope. A person, being human, can’t continue delivering indefinitely – unlike a slot machine, which can keep going forever. For example, when Taylor’s mom had health issues, she chose not to tour and instead planned smaller pop-up festivals. Fans weren’t necessarily excited or disappointed by this, but there will always be a time when she may choose not to do something. That’s the slippery slope of fan obsession, and it can be risky.” 

The Verdict: Is Taylor Swift Utilizing Gambling Psychology? 

Would you say you can draw parallels between the use of intermittent rewards in gambling (e.g., slot machines, lottery) and Taylor’s marketing tactics that create anticipation and unpredictability?  

“Yes, fans are aware that a reward exists, even if it seems distant or the chances of receiving it are low. Ultimately, there will be a winner, and sometimes that possibility alone is enough to keep people playing and investing their time. Not everyone is willing to put in the effort when the odds are slim, but some are comfortable taking those risks, much like playing the lottery. It all comes down to the psychology of the individual, whether they’re a fan or a gambler.  

In Taylor’s case, the role of intermittent reinforcement comes through her unpredictable releases and surprise announcements, which generate excitement and trigger dopamine spikes, keeping fans engaged. Since they never know when the next surprise will come, they stay motivated to keep following her closely. This uncertainty makes intermittent reinforcement highly effective, playing a significant role in keeping people invested – similar to the mechanics of gambling.” 

Biography

Dr. Jeffrey Derevensky is a professor at McGill University, where he serves in the Department of Educational and Counselling Psychology. He specializes in gambling behaviors, with a focus on youth gambling and high-risk behaviors. As the Director of the International Centre for Youth Gambling Problems, he has contributed significantly to research on gambling prevention, treatment, and the psychological mechanisms driving these behaviors. With advanced degrees (Ph.D. and M.A.) from McGill University and a B.A. from C.W. Post College, his expertise has influenced policy and education in the field of gambling. 

Nicole Ricken is a clinical psychologist and psychotherapist, speaker, and researcher, with a focus on behavior therapy. She pursued her Psychology degree at the University of Southern California to spearhead her own researched on behavior studies. She has spoken and volunteered at esteemed institutions such as National Institutes of Health in Maryland, the Ronald McDonald Houses nationwide, and the Institut Gustace Roussy in Paris. She’s also taken the TEDx stage in 2019 about her insights and experiences. 

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