Record travel forecast for July 4 holiday. Here’s what San Diegans need to know

For San Diegans planning to take an extended getaway for the coming Fourth of July holiday, be forewarned: The number of people hitting the roads and booking flights will be higher than it’s ever been, which translates to jam-packed beaches, congested highways and long lines at the airport.

The Automobile Club of Southern California is forecasting that not only will the total number of travelers be more than 5 percent higher than last year, but it will also surpass 2019 travel volumes by 6 percent. In all, a record 5.4 million Southern Californians will be leaving home for the holiday, the majority of whom will be driving. Nationwide, the expected number of travelers is nearly 71 million, up from 67.4 million last year and 65.2 million in 2019.

“This Fourth of July holiday is continuing the trend started over Memorial Day with new record levels of travel,” said Jena Miller, the Auto Club’s vice president of travel products and services. “The biggest increase this holiday is in flight vacations, which are expected to jump by 13 percent over last year with slightly cheaper domestic airfares.”

Where in the past the typical July 4 holiday period covered five days, the Auto Club changed its methodology this year and extended it to nine days, bookended by two weekends before and after the 4th, which falls on a Thursday this year. To make a fair comparison to past years, the club’s data research partner, DK Shifflet, adjusted previous forecasts to reflect a similar nine-day period, said spokesperson Marie Montgomery.

“We made sure that our firm that did this research went back and included similar lengths of times around those other years,” Montgomery said. “The firm has access to hotel stays, flights, all the travel info for every single year going back in time.”

Navigating road congestion

The good news, says the Auto Club, is that because the upcoming holiday is spread out over nine days as opposed to a typical three-day weekend, there should be less congestion.

The busiest times for travel when heading out for the holiday in Southern California will most likely be the afternoons and evenings of July 3, 4 and 5, while the most congestion for return trips heading south on Interstate 5 is expected to occur on the afternoon of July 8, says the Auto Club.

INRIX, a firm that provides transportation data analysis for the Auto Club, expects road trips over the holiday week to take up to 67 percent longer than normal. The firm advises motorists to monitor 511 services, local news stations and traffic apps to gauge conditions on the road.

INRIX calculated sample routes for various metro areas and then estimated the time it would take to get to selected destinations during peak travel times. For San Diego County, it estimates that a trip to Palm Springs via Interstate 15 at 6 p.m. on the Fourth of July would take 2 hours and 55 minutes — about 16 percent longer than on a normal day.

The cost of driving will likely be less expensive than a year ago as gas prices are slightly lower in Southern California than at this time a year ago, following two consecutive months of price drops, which might be tapering off. The current price per gallon for regular gasoline in San Diego is $4.815, slightly lower than the $4.905 a year ago.

What to expect at the San Diego airport

Airport officials are seeing the same trends as the Auto Club and are expecting more passengers to fly this summer than at any time since 2019. Airport spokesperson Nicole Hall says the airport is forecasting 750,000 to 780,000 passengers will arrive and depart from the airport over a 10-day period starting Friday, June 28.

The Auto Club is predicting slightly less than that over nine days and calculates that the total number of air travelers over the holiday will be up 13 percent compared to the same period in 2019. The busiest travel days are expected to be Sunday, June 30 and Sunday, July 7, Hall said.

“With the upcoming Independence Day holiday and construction on the new Terminal 1 in full swing, the airport encourages travelers and those picking up and dropping off people to plan ahead,” advises Hall.

The busiest times curbside are 4 a.m. to 6:15 a.m., 9:30 a.m. to 12:30 p.m., and 8 p.m. to 12 a.m., Hall said.

For those wanting to park, the airport says it would be wise to make reservations for the Terminal 2 Parking Plaza or consider taking the San Diego Flyer, a free shuttle bus service that operates seven days a week between the Old Town Transit Station and the airport.

Theme park advice

San Diego’s top tourist destinations are likely to be especially popular, with kids no longer in school. In anticipation of crowds wanting to see fireworks at SeaWorld on July 4, the theme park has added more seating options, including upgrading to reserved seating in select stadiums to ensure better vantage points for the light show.

SeaWorld spokesperson Tracy Spahr recommends that those planning to visit the park check out the schedule in advance. All shows and presentations will open 30 minutes prior to the start time.

The Auto Club notes that while most Southern Californians will be traveling to the region’s most popular driving destinations, like San Diego, Las Vegas and the Central Coast, the top domestic destinations for those opting to fly are likely to be Oahu, Orlando, Seattle, and Portland, Ore., as well as Las Vegas.

“The biggest increase we saw for this year was in air travel, and that’s partially due to airfares coming down domestically a little bit,” said Montgomery. “Travel by buses, trains and cruises is moving up every year but they’re not quite back to 2019 levels.”