Russia’s daily attacks on Ukraine have intensified by 10x, study finds

• Russian missile and drone strikes are becoming more intense, a new study found.
• Russia has ramped up its strikes recently and degraded Ukraine’s electricity production.
• The US must do more to curb the nations supplying Russia’s arsenal, the experts said.

To grasp the amount of firepower that Russia has unleashed on Ukraine, consider these numbers:

An average of 23 missiles and attack drones per day have pummeled Ukraine between September 2022 and September 2024. These attacks comprised 36 different models of missiles and drones, including Iskander ballistic missiles, Kh-59 cruise missiles and Iranian-made Shahed kamikaze drones. The figures don’t include the numerous attacks by small drones. These weapons are by no means limited to military targets, either. Among the shattered buildings far from the frontlines are hospitals, apartment complexes and a military academy filled with cadets.

Russian strikes have become more ferocious since Russia invaded in February 2022, according to the study by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank. In April 2023, 117 missiles were fired at Ukraine. In August 2024, that number soared by a factor of 10 to 1,110 rockets.

Utilizing open-source data, including a Ukrainian analyst who compiled a database of Russian attacks, CSIS focused on Russian “firepower strikes,” an emerging concept in the Russian, Chinese and US militaries in which multiple types of missiles and drones are combined for maximum effect. In addition to saturating Ukraine’s air defense network, Russia launched these weapons from multiple locations and directions to confuse the defenders.

This relentless bombardment hasn’t enabled Russia to defeat Ukraine, nor has it terrorized the Ukrainian public into submission as Russia’s leader has sought. But it has inflicted heavy damage. Strikes against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure has knocked out two-thirds of the country’s electric power generation capacity, crimping manufacturing and leaving many Ukrainians shivering in the winter cold.

Estimates of Russian missile strikes, and Ukrainian interceptions, should be treated with caution. “These are Ukraine’s officially reported numbers,” Yasir Atalan, a researcher at CSIS’s Futures Lab, told Business Insider. “So, any inference should be based on this.”

Nonetheless, there is a wide variation in the intensity of Russian strikes that seems to shift according to Moscow’s priorities. April 2023 saw an average of just 10 missiles per day. In August 2024, that number soared to 35 per day. “There were 17 days during the study period when missile launches exceeded 82 missiles in a single day,” CSIS said. “These high-intensity launch days correspond to specific military operations, strategic offensives, or responses to critical developments on the battlefield, reflecting moments of heightened conflict intensity.”

From October 2022 to December 2022, daily missile attacks rose from an average of 22 per day to 33. “While high, the levels are likely smaller than what Israel’s aerial strikes on Gaza and Iranian salvos targeting Israel imply about modern firepower strikes,” CSIS said. “Moscow either was trying to preserve Ukrainian infrastructure it thought it could seize intact or was thwarted by covert action — or bad logistics and targeting — from unleashing its full arsenal.”

December 2023 through March 2024 saw between 26 and 29 missiles per day. “These sustained high levels correspond to a drive by Russia to destroy Ukrainian critical infrastructure as a means of pressuring Kyiv to end the conflict,” said CSIS.

August 2024 was the most active month in the study, with an average 36 per day for a total of 1,110 missiles. However, September 2024 only had 12 missiles per day, “indicating a temporary lull in missile activities linked to either low stockpiles or Ukrainian long-range strikes.”

If there is any good news here, it is that Ukraine has achieved surprising success in stopping Russian missile and drone attacks when it has been well stocked with Western air defenses like Patriot and NASAMS. The average daily intercept rate is almost 84%, though Atalan emphasized that this number includes drones as well as missiles.

These figures suggest several key factors, CSIS concluded. One is the importance of Russia’s allies in replenishing its missile and drone arsenals. “Maintaining an average of over 23 missiles launched daily over nearly two years demonstrates a high level of sustained military capability in Moscow and logistical support from countries like Iran, North Korea, and China. The United States and its partners need to do more to curb the ability of these regimes to replenish Russia’s arsenal.”

Ukraine’s success in intercepting Russian missiles suggests that its mix of Western-supplied and Russian-designed air defense systems are able to provide an effective missile defense capability. “Keeping this intercept rate high will require continued Western support for Ukraine,” CSIS said.

Because missile strikes ramp when Russian ground troops launch major offensives, early warning of Russian offensive preparations is crucial. And the fact that Russian strikes are launched from multiple sites, and use a mix of weapons, suggests the solution is to boost Ukraine’s own long-range bombardment capability. Ukraine recently turned to strikes on Russian ammunition depots in an attempt to reduce Russia’s firepower advantage.

“Ukraine needs the flexibility to hit multiple missile launch sites deep inside Russia to reduce the potency of Moscow’s firepower strikes,” CSIS said.

Michael Peck is a defense writer whose work has appeared in Forbes, Defense News, Foreign Policy magazine, and other publications. He holds an MA in political science from Rutgers Univ. Follow him on Twitter and LinkedIn.