Ryen Russillo asks, “Is the world ready for Reed Sheppard to go No. 1?”

The NBA Draft is 10 days away. As the Finals near a conclusion, national NBA talking heads like Bill Simmons and Ryen Russillo are diving into the future of the league and they’re falling in love with Reed Sheppard.

Russillo has cultivated a reputation as someone who spends an exhaustive amount of time watching tape and looking deep into the advanced stats. He shared his homework on the latest edition of The Bill Simmons Podcast and started by asking this question.

“I’m afraid because of the Jokic, Luka, Caitlin Clark, Chet Hanks White Boy Summer, is the world ready for Reed Sheppard to go No. 1 as a 6-foot-1.5 guard from Kentucky? I just don’t know if people are ready for this,” said Russillo.

“White guys and white gals are having a moment when it comes to the hoops world. I’m just telling you he’s probably one of the best shooting prospects I’ve seen in 20 years of doing the draft.”

There is a talent vacuum in this NBA Draft. Nobody is a bonafide, can’t-miss future All-Star. The belief among many is that one of the top seven or eight players will probably become a star, the trick is deciphering which player that will be. Even though Sheppard doesn’t look like a traditional No. 1 pick, Russillo believes Sheppard has one of the best cases for being the best available prospect.

Sheppard has Insane Synergy Shooting Numbers

Synergy Sports has taken basketball analytics to a new level by tracking how players perform in hyper-specific situations. They have answers to questions like, “How does this player shoot off the pick-and-roll vs. catch-and-shoot?” In short, Reed Sheppard does them all incredibly well.

“His catch-and-shoot numbers — they do the percentile of where you rank based on these different shot types — so in catch-and-shoot, he’s 1.54 points per shot, 99th percentile. Guarded, he’s in the 96th percentile. It’s still at 1.36 plus. Unguarded, if you leave him open Bill, it’s f***ing over,” said Russillo.

What excited Russillo so much about Sheppard is that the numbers are just numbers. The point guard backs it all up on tape.

“If he’s just open, open, like it’s swung to the other side, then he cuts and finds a spot behind the three-point line, it’s a layup from out there. All of these numbers — whether it’s catch-and-shoot, dribble-jumper or guarded, unguarded — it’s all between the 96 and 99th percentile of college basketball players this season and the tape backs all of it up.”

Natural Point Guard Instincts

Russillo described his feelings as “cautiously delighted” when analyzing the former Wildcat’s game. The one big hang-up isn’t how he looks, but it’s that he only measured in at 6 foot, 1.5 inches tall at the Combine. However, he also posted the best vertical leap at the Combine, so can you really knock him that much for his height?

The numbers are eye-popping, but there’s something that really sets Sheppard apart that cannot be quantified, his feel for the game. He has great timing defensively, helping him steal 82 passes last fall, the second most in a single season at Kentucky. More importantly, he has an eye-opening command of the offense when he’s playing point guard.

“There’s some stuff there that he’s born with. I really feel that way about point guards and I’m not saying he’s Jason Kidd or anything, but Jason Kidd was born that way,” said Russillo.

Simmons responded, “You don’t learn how to be an awesome point guard. You have some sort of chromosome in your soul that gets you there.”

Over the last week, NBA front office officials prepared Russillo and Simmons to “be ready to be surprised.” Reed Sheppard may end up being the big surprise on NBA Draft night in Brooklyn.