Sorting NFL’s 3-0 teams: Top strengths, weaknesses, predicting how long Bills, Chiefs, others stay undefeated

Three weeks of the 2024 NFL season are in the books, and we’ve still got a few teams hanging onto spotless records. At least one of the teams isn’t a major surprise, with the reigning Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs starting 3-0 for the sixth time of coach Andy Reid’s tenure. Others, however, are literally defying the odds.

A long season remains, but the odds also say that a 3-0 start bodes well for a playoff appearance, with roughly 75% of 3-0 clubs going on to make the postseason since 1970. What lies ahead for this year’s spotless squads? Below, we’ve identified top strengths and weaknesses, and forecast when — or if — their perfect record will fall:

Wins: vs. Cardinals, @ Dolphins, vs. Jaguars

Top strength: Josh Allen. What else can we say? The guy has always been an MVP-caliber gunslinger, but even with a remade receiving corps, he’s dominated out of the gate. No one is rifling it deep with as much conviction right now, and weapons like James Cook and Dalton Kincaid are probably still underrated league-wide.

Top weakness: Defensive health. Sean McDermott’s group had no trouble cruising past Trevor Lawrence and Co. in a rout of Jacksonville, but with Matt Milano already sidelined at linebacker, bruises to starters like Terrel Bernard and Taron Johnson are worth monitoring. Otherwise, the Bills do register as a total package.

Prediction: The Bills narrowly survive the Baltimore Ravens in a thrilling Week 4 matchup to improve to 4-0, but fall to C.J. Stroud in another AFC playoff preview in Week 5.

Kansas City Chiefs

Wins: vs. Ravens, @ Bengals, @ Falcons

Top strength: Clutch execution. Steve Spagnuolo’s defense has remained physical, but Patrick Mahomes has been coming through in crunch time despite a banged-up supporting cast now missing lead ball-carrier Isiah Pacheco. Rashee Rice’s continued emergence as a No. 1 wideout has made them an after-the-catch mismatch.

Top weakness: Durability. Mahomes has had two starting left tackles this year, and most of the bench up front is banged up. The backfield is down to rookie Carson Steele with Pacheco and Clyde Edwards-Helaire unavailable, and Rice almost has to make plays out wide with Marquise Brown sidelined for potentially the whole season.

Prediction: The Chiefs beat the Los Angeles Chargers (Week 5) and New Orleans Saints (Week 6), then edge the San Francisco 49ers (Week 8) following the bye, improving to 7-0 before an upset loss to Todd Bowles’ defense and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 9.

Wins: @ Giants, vs. 49ers, vs. Texans

Top strength: Brian Flores’ frenetic defense. Sam Darnold has certainly exceeded expectations, distributing the ball with elite command in a deep Kevin O’Connell offense, but there might not be a more suffocating “D” in the NFL right now. Flores’ assembly of physical, versatile veterans keeps opposing quarterbacks in a tizzy.

Top weakness: The threat of a collapse. Oftentimes in Minnesota, another shoe is waiting to drop. Could it be Darnold reverting to risky throws if/when the Vikings actually trail in a game? Or O’Connell’s lineup losing another key playmaker to injury? Right now, there’s no glaring hole, which speaks to the job this group has done.

Prediction: The Vikings witness Jordan Love’s return to Lambeau Field in Week 4, where the physicality of Josh Jacobs and rangy defense led by Xavier McKinney finally result in Minnesota’s first loss of the season.

Wins: @ Falcons, @ Broncos, vs. Chargers

Top strength: Mike Tomlin’s defense, as per usual. Justin Fields has controlled the ball well as the fill-in (and soon-to-be permanent?) quarterback, but Steel City is still built on tenacious “D,” with T.J. Watt leading the way off the edge. Every level of the unit has swarming physicality, hence their allowing just 8.7 points per game.

Top weakness: Rushing efficiency. For all the ground-and-pound labels they get under new coordinator Arthur Smith, this group is averaging just 3.6 yards per carry, and that’s with one of the most athletic signal-callers in the NFL in Fields. Injuries up front don’t help, and could pose deeper issues down the stretch of the season.

Prediction: The Steelers endure a slugfest against the Indianapolis Colts (Week 4), forcing Anthony Richardson into multiple turnovers, to improve to 4-0, but can’t quite keep up with the Dallas Cowboys‘ firepower in Week 5.

Wins: vs. Broncos, @ Patriots, vs. Dolphins

Top strength: Mike Macdonald’s defensive touch. Seattle entered 2024 with underrated talent at each level of the “D,” and the former Baltimore Ravens coordinator has maximized it. Geno Smith has also been decisive in crunch time, but he can take chances because the defense is registering top-five numbers in points and yards allowed.

Top weakness: Health. Smith has stayed upright, but his O-line is once again under physical duress, and the backfield is also without Kenneth Walker III. Throw in some injuries to key defensive standouts like Leonard Williams and Byron Murphy, and the Seahawks are already struggling in the war of attrition.

Prediction: The Seahawks take the Detroit Lions to the wire in Week 4’s “Monday Night Football” matchup, but ultimately suffer their first defeat of Macdonald’s rookie season atop the staff.