Sports betting breakdown of Yankees-Red Sox matchup

This article was contributed by BetMGM. For more sports betting insights, check out BetMGM.com.

It figures to be a memorable weekend in Boston.

While the Celtics are one win away from securing an 18th championship in franchise history, the Boston Red Sox prepare to host the New York Yankees for a three-game rivalry series at Fenway Park.

The start time for Friday’s series opener has been bumped to 6:30 p.m. ET to accommodate those who want to watch Game 4 of the NBA Finals.

In the first series this season for a historic baseball rivalry, the Yankees will likely be favorites at the BetMGM online sportsbook throughout the weekend against the Red Sox. New York has the best record in baseball, while Boston is hovering around .500.

But bettors had more success fading New York in this matchup last year.

Despite its fifth-place finish in the AL East, Boston went 9-4 against New York during the 2023 season. A $100 moneyline bettor would have netted $512 by betting on the Red Sox in each game.

Of the 13 head-to-head meetings last year, the Red Sox closed as an underdog seven times. Their moneyline price ranged from -146 to +140.

Boston also went 9-4 on the run line against New York last year, indicating more value in taking the moneyline price.

As for the total, eight of the 13 matchups finished below the closing total. Only three games featured a total lower than nine, so bettors took advantage of some higher marks that typically traded between nine and 10 total runs.

As a result, that could be a sign of what to expect based on how the Red Sox and Yankees have performed in 2024.

Entering Thursday’s slate, Boston has been the sixth-best team in the league in return on investment for under bettors. The Red Sox are 36-29-4 to the under for an ROI of 5.99%.

The Yankees, meanwhile, usually have a higher total, given their potent lineup. They are 36-34-2 to the under for an ROI of -1.51%.

From a moneyline perspective, New York paces the league with an ROI of 18.86%. Boston is 10th with an ROI of -3.43%.

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