State of the CONMEBOL World Cup Qualifiers Heading Into 2025

International soccer action in 2024 has concluded, with no more official matches scheduled until March 2025. In South America, the CONMEBOL 2026 FIFA World Cup qualifiers are two thirds of the way over after the most recent two game international break, leaving it all to be decided in the final six games.

There was considerable movement in the standings thanks to surprising results over the past week. With no team still mathematically qualified for the next WC, here’s how things stand through 12 games in the CONMEBOL World Cup qualifiers.

There was a lot of doom and gloom following Argentina’s loss in Paraguay in the first game of the international break. However, a victory at home against Peru combined with the results of other matches have La Albiceleste five points clear atop the standings, two more than before the start of the break. Despite a noticeable drop in form, Lionel Scaloni’s side can end another successful year knowing that qualification is a matter of time.

Uruguay’s four points in the last two games saw it return to second in the standings. An agonizing victory in stoppage time against Colombia in one of the best games of recent international action saw Marcelo Bielsa’s men overtake the Copa América 2024 runner-ups. A draw against Brazil in the second game completed a solid showing against two of the top teams in South America.

Ecuador continues to impress as its new generation of players, led by legend, Enner Valencia, solidified its ascent as one of South America’s best teams currently. Sebastián Beccacece’s men took six points from its matches against Bolivia and Colombia, jumping from fifth to third on the table to close out the year.

It was a rough two games for a Colombian side that entered the break hoping to jump Argentina in first place. Back to back defeats now have Los Cafeteros sitting fourth, overtaken by both Uruguay and Ecuador.

The defeat in stoppage time in Montevideo, Uruguay, was a back-breaker. But its inability to at least salvage a point at home against an Ecuador side that played an hour of the game with 10 men is even more painful. The players’ frustration was evident, as Aston Villa striker, Jhon Duran, had a tense exchange with a reporter following the loss.

Brazil continues to be unconvincing in its style of play and in the performances of its stars. Back to back 1–1 draws against Venezuela and Uruguay have them sitting fifth entering the new year, seven points back of arch rivals Argentina. La Seleçao doesn’t look like the teams of old that dominated the sport, its stars aren’t performing at the level they do at their clubs, but overall, it’s a squad with less talent than previous iterations of the team.

Brazil is still in very likely to maintain it’s spot among direct qualification places; however, if it wasn’t for the increase in the amount of Conmebol participants in the upcoming World Cup, Brazil would currently be in a play-in spot. Evidence continues to mount signaling that the five time WC champions are no longer the team that generates fear all over South America and the world.

Bolivia, Venezuela, Chile and Peru are in for an intense final six games as they will likely battle it out for the play-in game that a seventh place finish awards.

Bolivia currently holds that position but only six points separate the four nations with 18 points still up for grabs. Paraguay in sixth is four points clear and there seems to be a clear gap in quality between the top six and the bottom four teams.

The stage is set for a dramatic race to decide which nation will get a shot at a match against a team from another continent with a ticket to the World Cup on the line.

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