State report predicts Trump will boost Alaska oil/gas jobs, cut federal posts

A new report from the Alaska Dept. of Labor and Workforce Development predicts that the incoming Trump administration will benefit oil and gas jobs, while potentially reducing the large number of federal jobs across the state.

“President-elect Donald Trump’s second term will open new opportunities for Alaska,” wrote Labor Commissioner Catherine Munoz, in the January issue of Trends. “The Alaska Priorities for Federal Transition report outlines several actions that President-elect Trump could take to expand access to lands for Alaskans to develop resources, which would bolster our nation’s critical mineral supply and new oil production.”

Overall, the state is forecasting that Alaska will add another 5,300 total jobs this year, led by growth in construction, health care, transportation, and oil and gas.

Of these sectors, oil and gas jobs have lagged since 2019. That is expected to change with infrastructure projects moving forward at Pikka oil field, which aims to begin production in early 2026. Additionally, work on the Willow development will continue for several more years.

Overall, oil and gas has added 1,400 jobs since the industry low of 6,700 total jobs in 2021.

“We expect growth to continue in 2025 at a faster clip with increased activity (600 jobs),” the Trends report states. “Industry employment dropped drastically during the pandemic, but production remained remarkably stable. After several years of that unusual balance, job growth resumed, but in 2024, total employment remained about 1,800 below 2019 levels. Pikka and Willow, expected to begin production in 2026 and 2029, respectively, aren’t yet generating many jobs in the oil industry but are bolstering employment in construction, transportation, and even manufacturing and wholesale.”

Additionally, the mining industry is expected to do well in 2025.

“The Manh Choh mine in the Southeast Fairbanks Census Area opened in 2024 and poured its first gold in July,” the job report notes. “Mature mines such as Greens Creek gold mine and Red Dog zinc mine are pursuing additional resources near their current operations as they near the ends of their life spans. Other mines are under study, such as the Graphite One project outside of Nome, which received a large Department of Defense grant for an accelerated feasibility study.”

President-elect Donald Trump, who takes office on Jan. 20, has announced that a new Department of Government Efficiency will significantly reduce the size and expense of the federal government,” Trends notes. “It’s too early to know what that might mean for the 15,000 federal workers in Alaska.

Mining will get a longer-term boost from the U.S. statutory designation of certain minerals as “critical,” based partly on supply chain vulnerabilities, the report observes.

“The U.S. aims to reduce its dependence on China, the lead producer, and other countries for minerals used for everything from computer chips and batteries to high-tech weapon and defense systems,” it notes.

The forecast is not so rosy for those looking to work in the federal government.

“President-elect Donald Trump, who takes office on Jan. 20, has announced that a new Department of Government Efficiency will significantly reduce the size and expense of the federal government,” Trends notes. “It’s too early to know what that might mean for the 15,000 federal workers in Alaska or the 1,400 in Southeast, but growth appears unlikely. Active-duty military jobs aren’t part of the standard wage and salary job counts this forecast covers.”

Aside from the military, most federal jobs in Alaska are in the Department of the Interior, which manages the country’s public lands, national parks, and wildlife refuges, the report notes.

“The Department of Agriculture, which houses the Forest Service, is another large federal employer,” the report adds. “The Forest Service manages the Tongass National Forest — the nation’s largest — which covers most of Southeast Alaska.”

A major challenge for all employment sectors is Alaska’s continued labor shortage. Despite high job openings there are relatively few unemployed workers to fill these posts.

“Workers have more opportunities than usual to look for other, higher-paying jobs, and many businesses have increased wages to attract or keep them amid the higher turnover,” the Trends report notes.

The worker shortage is being driven by several factors: losing more people to migration than are gained for 12 straight years, an aging population, and plummeting birth rates.

“These trends have reduced the number of Alaskans in their prime working ages, 18 to 64, by 34,000 people between 2013 and 2023,” Trends notes.

Given the fact that incoming President-elect Donald Trump has vowed to cut the size of federal government, there may be many Alaskans looking for jobs in the near future.

“The federal government has an outsized presence here, with Alaska receiving far more than the typical state’s share of federal funding,” the Trends report observes. “The federal government has added 700 jobs in Alaska since 2019, including 400 in 2024, but the incoming Trump administration plans to significantly reduce the size and scope of the federal government. It takes time to make those changes, even by executive order, so drastic job cuts are unlikely this year. However, the announcement will likely have a chilling effect on federal recruitment and retention.”

The Trends report does not include military employment.

On the state level, Trends explains that Alaska will continue to struggle to fund its operations.

“The revenue model from the 1980s, which relied almost exclusively on oil and gas, is no longer viable,” the report notes. “Oil revenue plummeted in fiscal year 2015, and draws from Alaska Permanent Fund earnings overtook oil revenue the following year. The most recent forecast by the Alaska Department of Revenue shows oil revenues falling over the next several years, with prices and production lower than previous estimates.”

Additionally, draws from Permanent Fund earnings now pay for most of state government and the annual dividend paid to residents, the report adds, noting that the state has already emptied most of its other savings accounts.

“Despite fiscal challenges, state government added 700 jobs in 2024 and is forecasted to add 200 more in 2025,” the report states. “The state has struggled to fill positions in recent years, citing recruitment and retention challenges.”

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