Take This +1200 Team To Win The World Series

MLB World Series

PublishedOctober 1, 2024 8:04 AM EDT|UpdatedOctober 1, 2024 8:04 AM EDT

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MLB World Series

The MLB playoffs start today and if you know anything about me and baseball it is that I love the daily plays and very rarely like the futures. I’ve done well with some in the past, and others I really struggled. For example, this year, I hit the Brewers at +700 to win the NL Central division. Great! I also wrote somewhere that I thought the White Sox could win over 60 games this season (this was before they traded Cease and everyone else). They went on to lose the most games in the modern era. Just like in baseball, you hit some and then you miss some. Today, I will bring you my pick to win the World Series champion: the San Diego Padres at +1200. 

The San Diego Padres ended the season at 93-69, tied for the third-best record in the National league and putting them in the playoffs as the top Wild Card winner. There was a time this season where it looked like we weren’t going to get the Padres even into the playoffs. Somehow they made a giant push and catapulted themselves into the mix. They ended the season nine games above .500 at home, and 15 games better on the road, which isn’t the case for any other National League team, and is only behind the Yankees for most road wins. In order to win in baseball, you need to take care of your home field, but being able to win on the road shows me that your team is consistent and can play during adversity. Take for example the Colorado Rockies, they are just seven games under .500 at home this season, but they are 33 games under on the road. What I like most about the Padres is not just that they win on the road, it is that the lineup has talent 1-9 and not just one or two guys with power. If you take Aaron Judge and Juan Soto out of the Yankees lineup, they are in line with the Pirates and Mariners for level of offense. That’s really bad. The Padres have a more balanced approach. Look, if you took Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado out the Padres would hurt for sure, but I’m saying there is more to the team than just those two guys. I really like this lineup and think the balance of hitting for power and hitting for average will benefit them in the playoffs as they continuously face the best pitchers of an opposing team.

The postseason often comes down to pitching, and that’s a scary consideration for most teams. For the Padres, they actually are fairly loaded there as well. They have Dylan Cease, who they received in the earlier mentioned trade, Yu Darvish who is back from his personal issues, Joe Musgrove, one of the more underrated starters in baseball, and Michael King who held the 9th-lowest ERA and 10th most strikeouts this season. That’s just the starting staff. Four arms that will be tough to navigate through for any opponent. Obviously if one of them struggles in the postseason this looks a lot bleaker, but the bullpen has been great as well. Robert Suarez has been a good closer and should be fine in high-pressure situations. Tanner Scott has been awesome for the Padres as well. So, a good starting staff and a strong backend of the bullpen, what is not to like about the Padres? Well, for me it would be inconsistency. They’ve let me down for two years now when I pick them for future awards or to be successful. I like Wild Card winners because they play right away and typically are hotter teams coming into the playoffs. 

When was the last time I hit a World Series champion? It was me betting on the Nationals when they won in 2019. I won’t say I always bet on a winner before the playoffs start, but there have certainly been times I’ve tried. I hit Jorge Soler to be the World Series MVP when he was on the Braves for a nice payday. So, again, it isn’t like I nail every future or miss them all. This is a play that I think has some good value and is worth it at +1200 or better. I do think they can and will win, but I don’t blame you if you don’t race to the window.