Thanksgiving forecast: Where weather may cook up holiday travel trouble

While rain, wind and snow will cause potential delays for many, others will see ‘easy as pie’ travel weather this upcoming holiday week.

With many people across the United States gearing up for turkey day and taking time to prepare for gatherings of family and friends, millions are also finalizing their travel plans for what is commonly one of the busiest weeks of the year for travel.

The travel demand for the 2024 Thanksgiving holiday week is expected to set new records for both airway and roadway travel with nearly 80 million travelers heading out of town. That’s an increase of 1.7 million from 2023, according to AAA.

While some locations will face ‘easy as pie’ travel conditions, AccuWeather meteorologists note that there will be factors at play ahead of the holiday that may complicate matters.

A large corridor across the central and southern half of the nation is expected to face calm and mainly dry conditions this Saturday and Sunday, which may benefit early travelers in these regions.

Some metros across the South Central states, such as Dallas and Houston, will have daytime temperatures rise several degrees above historical averages over the weekend. Typical late-November temperatures across this region often range between the upper 60s to lower 70s Fahrenheit, but they will climb into the 70s and 80s for many by Sunday.

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Across the Northeast, a lingering storm will bring pockets of rain and snow showers throughout the weekend before it advances offshore. While the most substantial impacts will be in the higher terrain and interior Northeast locations, blustery winds across the I-95 corridor could cause trouble for air and road travelers alike.

Following the series of storms that has recently impacted the Western states and Rockies, residents may be yearning for a stretch of calmer weather. This weekend may prove to be a continuation of the active pattern, but a change is on the horizon later next week.

While Thanksgiving itself may be less active than recent days, the days leading up to the late-week holiday could still be plagued with travel-disrupting weather.

Early next week, a new storm can impact travelers along the West Coast and spread coastal rain and mountain snow across the region. The timing of this storm in the West will be crucial for how the remaining week’s weather plays out across the Central and Eastern states.

AccuWeather meteorologists are sounding the alarm for a potential storm across the center of the nation that could disrupt travel ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday.

“Travel conditions ahead of Thanksgiving will be generally favorable across the country, but a storm brewing across the Plains during the middle of next week can put a damper on any last-minute travel plans,” explained AccuWeather Meteorologist Emma Belscher.

As tropical activity wanes across the Gulf and Caribbean, it has opened up the potential for nearby storms tracking across the country to tap into the readily-available Gulf moisture. Travelers should be aware of the threat of steady rainfall as a storm shifts across the southern Plains to the Northeast by the middle of next week.

Forecasters say the lack of sustained cold air across the country could mean more rain than snow for locations such as the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, mid-Atlantic region and Northeast next week.

By late week, a storm slowly advancing eastward across the country may finally make its debut in the Northeast and mid-Atlantic states. Chances for widespread rain and pockets of snow in the typically cooler spots in the East will rise as the week progresses, forecasters say.

The timing of this rain will largely dictate what the remainder of the week and upcoming weekend looks like across this half of the nation.

“A stronger storm would track slowly through the Midwest later this week, spreading downpours and snow across the Midwest and Northeast. A less intense storm would move quickly off the Carolina coast and would bring less intense rain and snow to parts of the Southeast and mid-Atlantic,” noted Belscher.

Belscher added that regardless of which track the storm takes, Thanksgiving will likely be a cloudy, soaking day for some across the eastern half of the country. A slower-moving, more intense storm later this week could lead to more impacts following the Thanksgiving holiday into the weekend.

For those attending the acclaimed Macy’s Thanksgiving Day parade in New York City, forecasters warn that there will be rain or showers possible across the region with potentially breezy conditions based on the current progression of the storm later next week.

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