Thanksgiving Travel Likely Caused Office Return Slowdown

The top two metros that led in November office recovery were Miami (visits at 84% of pre-pandemic levels) and New York City (81.9% of pre-pandemic volume). The next few at the top of Placer.ai’s “select cities” were Atlanta (67.5%), Dallas (66.5%), and Washington, D.C. (60.3%).

The bottom five were Boston (53.2%), Denver (53.0%), Los Angeles (52.5%), Chicago (50.7%), and San Francisco (47.9%).

As Placer.ai noted, the pandemic was the ultimate training ground for remote work. People could work from almost anywhere and many could have extended their trips without taking extra days off. That meant less time in the office, which pushed down foot traffic that the firm would otherwise have measured. The question for business and CRE strategists is whether 2024 was an anomaly or an increasing trend might happen going forward, whether during November or with an equivalent escape from the office in December. Although for a long time, that’s seemed an almost automatic expectation.

There were other factors as well. San Francisco saw visits increase by 1.6%. Assuming that is outside some reasonable statistical variation, it could be due to companies there, like Salesforce, that pushed return-to-office requirements. Temperate weather there and in Miami could have convinced people to stay home for the holidays — and possibly sneak in a trip or two to the office.

That’s unlike a place like Denver with some almost record snowfalls that could have kept people sitting on the couch and not venturing out of the house, resulting in an 11.3% year-over-year decline in office visits. Even in New York there may have been disruptions as “extended ‘workcations’” by people who could continue at home combined with “potential disruptions in public transit” and higher travel congestion during the holiday, creating an unexpected increased drop in office time.