For this week’s picks, we have a young quarterback making a statement with his legs, two players for offenses with question marks hitting under their respective yardage benchmarks, an All-Pro wide receiver shining in prime time, and a receiver in a game expected to score six or more touchdown getting in on the act.
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The Over/Under on the Lions-Cowboys game is 52 – the clear expectation being that there are going to be quite a few touchdowns scored by both teams. If the Lions are expected to score three or four of those, St. Brown should be involved in one of them.
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The biggest difference the Buccaneers are going to see with rookie Spencer Rattler replacing Derek Carr is that they have one mission: contain Kamara and make Rattler show what he’s to offer in his Week 6 NFL debut. This isn’t an unreasonable number to expect from Kamara, but when the box is packed with eight defenders on more plays than not, Kamara’s run lanes will be reduced.
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The Browns are massive road dogs to the Eagles (9.5 points), so there is always the chance Cooper could get gravy yards during garbage time to hit this number, but when Cooper no-shows it’s always in a big way. The defensive attention he’s going to get is likely to take him away from Deshaun Watson, who may be starting his last game for the Browns if there’s a blowout. Cooper will be invisible if the Browns get blown out.
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For some reason in the flex era, we’re stuck with the Bengals-Giants on Sunday night. The Giants have a good defensive front, but they are shaky on the back end. Chase has topped this number in each of the last three games, and there is no reason to think that he won’t this time. It may take five catches to do it, but he’ll get there.
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The Packers are going to come after Murray with seven-man blitzes early and often. If it works, it’s a brilliant strategy. When it fails, it fails big time. When the game is over, the number of Murray rushes will be likely in the five or six range. It will take only two of those to top this number.
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