The Art of Sport LA Bowl: California vs. UNLV – Odds, expert picks, QB matchup, betting trends, and stats

UNLV (10-3) has come a long way in the last two years with HC Barry Odom and OC Brennan Marion coaching the Running Rebels to their second consecutive Mountain West Championship game. Outside of the previously mentioned loss to Boise, UNLV’s only other blemish was a thrilling 44-41 OT loss to 9-3 ACC program Syracuse. Victories over Big-12 programs @Houston and @Kansas show just how far the Rebs have come, with UNLV’s offense becoming lethal between the 20’s, ranking 4th in marginal explosiveness and 3rd in IsoPPP. When the field is shortened, they struggle, ranking 118th with a 50.7% red zone touchdown rate. Their run defense is solid ranking 9th in EPA/rush. However, UNLV’s secondary is susceptible to getting beat over the top as they rank 129th in air yards per target (8.7) and 76th in passing explosiveness.

California (6-6) had a hot start winning their first three games with a 21-14 victory over @Auburn in Week 2 to hang their hat on. Cal went onto lose four consecutive games by a combined scoring margin of just nine points before taking three of their next four to achieve bowl eligibility. The Bears’ rushing offense lacks consistency, ranking 118th in EPA/rush and 125th in YAC, which is a problem since starting QB Fernando Mendoza is in the transfer portal and backup QB Chandler Rogers is questionable to play. Cal’s defense ranks 33rd in EPA/play and 27th in explosive play rate allowed, with their run D ranking a sterling 10th in yards per successful rush allowed.

NBC Sports has all the latest info and analysis you need, including how to tune in for kickoff, odds from BetMGM, player news and updates, and of course our predictions and best bets for the game from our staff of experts.

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Game Details and How to watch The Art of Sport LA Bowl: California vs. UNLV

· Date: Wednesday, December 17, 2024
· Time: 9:00 PM EST
· Site: SoFi Stadium
· City: Los Angeles, CA
· TV/Streaming: ESPN

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Game odds for California vs. UNLV

• Moneyline: Cal (+120), UNLV (-145)
• Spread: UNLV (-3)
• Over/Under: 47.5 points

This game actually opened with Cal favored by -1.5/-120 but has since flipped sides to UNLV -3/-145. With Cal QB Mendoza out, the total has plummeted from 51.5 to a low of 47.5.

NBC Sports Bet Best Bet

NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) thinks:
“Cal is one of the more pass-oriented Power Four programs, ranking 115th in standard downs run rate and 101st in rush rate on passing downs. With Chandler Rogers’ availability highly in question we’ve already seen a major shift in UNLV’s favor as prospective bettors line up to fade CJ Harris. I’m laying the -3 and backing the Running Rebels over Cal.”

Listen to the Bet the Edge podcast as hosts Jay Croucher and Drew Dinsick provide listeners with sharp actionable insight, market analysis and statistical data to help bettors gain more information before placing their wagers.

Quarterback matchup for California vs. UNLV

• Cal: Opening game starter Fernando Mendoza is set to transfer, so it’s expected that we see former Ohio QB CJ Harris who has completed 84-of-158 passes for 904 yards and a 53.2% completion rate to go with a 5-to-5 ratio over his career. He has some running ability when given the chance having accrued 265 rushing yards and three touchdowns over his five-year career. He represents a significant downgrade from Mendoza, so hopefully North Texas transfer Chandler Rogers is healthy enough to suit up.

• UNLV: Las Vegas brought in FCS signal callers Matthew Sluka and Campbell’s Hajj-Malik Williams. Sluka started the first three games before a NIL disagreement caused him to leave the team with OC Marion handing over the starting reins to Williams, who is completing 61.4% of his passes for 7.8 YPA and a 17-to-5 ratio. Hajj-Malik’s 11.0 ADOT is the 11th highest mark among 108 FBS and he has accrued 50+ rushing yards in 9-of-11 contests. The fifth-year player has earned a 78th percentile PFF overall grade in his first FBS season.

Betting Trends & Recent Stats

• California has 282 receptions in 12 games (23.5 per game) this season, 4th-best among ACC skill players. UNLV’s defense has allowed 21.3 receptions per game this season, tied for 12th-worst among FBS defenses.
• Hajj-Malik Williams has been sacked on 11% of pass attempts this season, 9th-most among FBS quarterbacks.
• UNLV has 17 interceptions this season, 2nd-most among Non-Power Conference teams
• UNLV have completed passes for 20+ yards on 80 of their 694 total passing attempts since the 2023 season, 34th-best among FBS offenses.
• California is 6-13 (.316) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season, 37th-worst in FBS. (Average: .422)
• Jaydn Ott has averaged just 2.9 Yards per Carry this season, 2nd-worst among FBS Running Backs.
• Jack Endries has been targeted 108 times since the 2023 season, 10th-most among Power Conference Tight Ends.
• California has allowed opponents to catch 71 of 111 passes in the Red Zone since the 2023 season, 4th-worst among Power Conference teams.

College Football talk is taking over Bet the Edge every Thursday throughout the season. BET THE EDGE is your source for all things sports betting. Get all of Vaughn Dalzell, Eric Froton, and Brad Thomas’ insights Thursdays at 6AM ET right here or wherever you get your favorite podcasts.

BetMGM College Football Insights: National Championship

Line movement (Open to Now)

• Oregon +900 to +350
• Texas +1000 to +350
• Georgia +500 to +500
• Ohio State +700 to +500

Highest Ticket%

• Ohio State 11.9%
• Texas 10.1%
• Georgia 9.6%

Highest Handle%

• Ohio State 14.8%
• Georgia 12.4%
• Alabama 11.4%

Biggest Liabilities

• Alabama
• Arizona State
• Notre Dame

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• Brad Thomas (@MrBradThomas)
• Eric Froton (@CFFroton)