The Cleveland Guardians Need Upgrades To Bolster World Series Chances

The Cleveland Guardians are the best team in MLB—at least for the time being. With last night’s 10-8 win over the Baltimore Orioles and losses by the New York Yankees and Philadelphia Phillies, their 51-26 record is now the best in the majors by a few percentage points.

Their ascension to the top of the standings took baseball by surprise. After a 76-86 finish last season, FanGraphs’ preseason projections pegged them to go 80-82 this year and gave them a 33.4% chance of reaching the playoffs. As of today, those projections have been upgraded to an expected 92-70 record and 94.1% playoff chances.

The Guardians’ ascendance is attributed to several standout performers, starting with left fielder Steven Kwan, who leads MLB with a .385 batting average and a 97.6% zone-contact rate. David Fry came out of nowhere with a .309/.421/.525 slash line while rotating between catcher, designated hitter, and outfielder. Third baseman José Ramírez is enjoying his usual All-Star caliber campaign, and first baseman Josh Naylor’s 20 home runs make last offseason’s trade speculation seem laughable.

Cleveland’s secret not-so-secret weapon is the best bullpen in MLB, including closer Emmanuel Clase’s 0.70 ERA and 0.65 WHIP. Hunter Gaddis, Tim Herrin, and Cade Smith also have ERAs under 2.00 and average fewer than once basreunner allowed per inning. Collectively, they have an incredible team bullpen ERA of 2.34—the next-best in MLB is the Los Angeles Dodgers’ 3.02.

Despite how well they’re playing, they have some key areas in where they can improve by making additions at the trade deadline—especially up the middle. Shortstop has been a black hole for the past few years. Rookie Brayan Rocchio is batting .214/.316/.303 and has a 2nd percentile hard-hit rate. Gabriel Arias hasn’t been any better, sporting a .262 on-base percentage.

Second baseman Andrés Giménez continues to bat second in the lineup despite a .305 on-base percentage and little power. The club committed an extension to him that runs through 2029, so he won’t be replaced any time soon—though they could move him down in the lineup. Even though he won Gold Gloves at second in both 2022 and 2023, he has experience at shortstop and could potentially move across the bag to facilitate a trade.

27-year-old rookie Daniel Schneemann is off to a hot start playing center field and in the infield, but he’s unlikely to sustain it long enough to become their answer in center. Converted infielder Tyler Freeman has received the lion’s share of the playing time there this year despite his .215/.307/.343 batting line.

As great as their bullpen has been, they’ve been playing with fire in the starting rotation. Tanner Bibee has been excellent, owning a 3.50 ERA, a 3.11 FIP, and accruing 106 strikeouts in 87 1/3 innings. Ben Lively has been a revelation with a 3.03 ERA in 12 starts after a terrible year with the Cincinnati Reds last season and several years in the minors and in Korea before that. After those two, the other three members of the rotation have been suspect.

Logan Allen and Triston McKenzie are 25 and 26, and they have enjoyed success earlier in their young careers, but this year they’ve struggled to get batters out. They have FIPs of 5.83 and 6.15 respectively, and they’re both allowing more than two home runs per nine innings.

Carlos Carrasco pitched for Cleveland from 2009-2020, then returned this season after three years with the New York Mets. He may be a fan favorite, but he has a 5.40 ERA and only 51 strikeouts in 65 innings of work. At the age of 37, his fastball velocity declined to 91.7 mph from 92.9 mph last season.

The Guardians haven’t won the World Series since 1948, which is the longest ongoing drought in MLB. This year, they have as good of a chance as they’ve had since they lost the 2016 World Series to the Chicago Cubs, but to improve their odds, they will need upgrades at shortstop, in center field, and in their starting pitching over the next five weeks.