The Domino Effect: Three potential impacts to Spurs’ transfer business

Transfer windows are a tale of moving parts. Opportunity and necessity are often at odds, financial regulations can restrict, and a single enticing offer can change the course of business for multiple clubs. With that said, well-run clubs always have contingency plans, alternative approaches, and backup targets. Over the last season or so, Tottenham Hotspur have begun to position themselves as one of those clubs.

In years gone by, Spurs have sometimes struggled in the transfer window, often narrowing their focus to a single player only to have plans dashed when a rival bid came in, the selling club upped the price, or the player refused to come. This has improved in recent seasons, with Spurs lining up alternative targets and quickly pivoting when it’s become clear that their target was not available for a fee the club was willing to pay. David Raya became Guglielmo Vicario; Edmond Tapsoba became Micky van de Ven; Luis Diaz became Rodrigo Bentancur and Dejan Kulusevski.

Over the last year or so, Scott Munn has overseen a refresh of the Tottenham front office to help improve both these processes and Spurs’ long-term squad planning even further, with the club expanding its scouting network, improving its analytics teams, and bringing on Johan Lange to drive this strategic approach as Spurs try to build a successful team under the management of Ange Postecoglou.

The team has been in sore need of the fabled “painful rebuild” for some time, and this started in earnest last summer. With Spurs’ defense now largely in a good spot, some key pieces in midfield and attack in place, and some talented young players coming through, Spurs now need to flesh out the squad; both in terms of depth and by adding a couple more starting quality options. The midfield and attack are really the areas of need, with a forward, winger, and defensive midfielder all mentioned at times as priorities over the last six months.

So how will Lange and co approach the summer transfer window? Well, with a number of competing priorities, there’s a number of ways in which the club could go, some of which could be influenced by offers for players, targets becoming available, and flexibility within the squad. With that in mind, here’s my view on a few possibilities that could in turn impact the way the club do their business: transfer dominos, for want of a better word, and how the club could then move forward as a result.

#1. Spurs sign a target of opportunity

One of the big links to Spurs for some time has been Conor Gallagher. It’s an intriguing link, as he doesn’t really fall under any of Spurs’ named priorities, namely the forward line or defensive midfield. Instead, he’s a quality player who would improve Tottenham’s squad (and arguably the starting XI) who may be available for a very reasonable price due to Chelsea’s financial woes.

Eberechi Eze is another player who may fall under this umbrella. Though probably available at a higher fee than Gallagher, there have been recent reports of a release clause in Eze’s contract; meaning Spurs may take the chance to sign a quality attacking midfielder. Again, he’s not really a player at a position of priority, but he would improve the options available to Ange Postecoglou and the release clause could make signing the England international a relatively straightforward process.

#2. A big offer is accepted for Richarlison

Soon after the season ended, there were a number of reports that Spurs were willing to listen to offers for Richarlison. Though the Brazilian looked excellent at times through 23/24, injury woes and doubts around tactical fit, as well as interest from overseas has cast uncertainty over the future of Tottenham’s #9.

Saudi Arabian clubs have been sniffing around Richy, with some outlets saying clubs in the KSA would happily pay a significant fee for the forward which Spurs would then be able to reinvest. That all hinges on a move being acceptable to Richarlison, however, as he made clear via social media he was not happy about the links to the KSA. Even if a fee was accepted by Spurs, Richy himself has to be happy to leave – and perhaps he would be, to the right club.

#3. A big offer is accepted for Bentancur or Bissouma

Yves Bissouma started the season as a fixture of Ange’s starting XI, but suspensions and injuries, much like with Richarlison, derailed his campaign. When he returned to the team, his performances were substandard. Though he began to show improvements late on in the season, there are still lingering concerns around his fit in a full firing Postecoglou side with his passing range and his ability to track runners called into question.

Likewise, Rodrigo Bentancur is also a bit of an enigma in a Postecoglou side. Though a quality player, he doesn’t quite fit with either the #6 OR #8 role, and he is still yet to show his best after recovering from his severe knee injury. These could be the reasons why there has been so much reporting on Spurs prioritizing a new defensive midfielder, with the club reportedly open to a significant offer for either player.

How will the dominos fall?

Any or all of the above could happen. Spurs could succeed in their game of chicken with Chelsea; Richarlison might decide he wants to try his hand elsewhere; and Spurs could get an offer they can’t refuse for Yves Bissouma.

So how does this affect Spurs’ strategy? Here’s some of the possibilities:

• #1 happens: It’s been rumored that the Tottenham front office have been less than enthused with the options available at the #6, so if Eze or Gallagher were locked in it’s my belief that Spurs will prioritize an additional option in the front line. The signing of Eze, also able to play wide, would mean looking at a player who’s probably more of a pure striker to compete with Richarlison; whereas a Gallagher signing might mean targeting that rumored dribbly winger.
• #2 happens: Striker becomes the clear priority. A laundry list of targets has been mentioned, with names such as Dominic Solanke, Ivan Toney, Santiago Gimenez, Viktor Gyokeres, and Benjamin Sesko linked. Spurs may then look to sign a versatile wide player who could potentially also cover duties in the middle of the park.
• #3 happens: #6 immediately jumps to the top of the priority list. Some reports have stated that the club aren’t exactly satisfied with the options on the market, and it’s perhaps for this reason that there’s less clarity around some of the targets. Ederson from Atalanta has been mentioned, though he’s more of an 8 and those links have gone quiet; Everton’s Amadou Onana is another. Again, a winger who can cover in the middle may be looked at, but depending on the profile of the #6 signed, a more pure wide option might be considered.

You can probably map out from the above what happens if more than one of these come to pass. 1 & 2, and the priority is striker, plus potentially a winger; 1 & 3: an option for the forward line plus a defensive midfielder; and so on and so forth.

It’s my thinking based on past spending patterns and the needs of the squad that Spurs likely have the budget for one, perhaps two, near starting level players, assuming a chunk of outgoings such as Bryan Gil, Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg, and Giovani Lo Celso, and Manor Solomon. There’s also the mooted sale of Emerson Royal, though that fee will likely be reinvested in a new option at the same position.

In short, Spurs are willing to invest in the squad, but there is some dependency on outgoings and who is available on the market. The club can’t just continue to sign players without others leaving, and Spurs also can’t get too attached to players who are good but not great and don’t necessarily line up with the long-term strategy. Likewise, targets of opportunity can be great for the club, but could also mean kicking the can down the road on positions with potentially a more dier (ahem) need. Balancing this with signing players with upside who will contribute meaningfully to the more modern tactical approach is a big part of Lange’s job, and he has his work cut out for him this summer.

Whatever happens, there is sure to be movement in the side, with the team potentially having a new look to go with the new season kits. Let the rosterbation commence!