The fearful labor market: What hiring managers need to know about a deeply confusing jobs landscape

Welcome to the fearful labor market. Despite a low unemployment rate, a record number of people are scared about losing their jobs.

The percentage of workers who expect to be cut in the next four months reached 4.4% in July, according to a new survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. That’s up from 3.9% compared to the same month last year, and the highest it’s been since the agency started keeping score in 2014. 

But increased job loss fears don’t tell the whole story of a labor landscape that has become a strange brew of bad vibes, high wages, and restless employees. 

Workers are more afraid than ever of losing their jobs, but they’re also more optimistic about getting new ones in the next few months—that number jumped from 18.7% in July of 2023 to 22.2% last month. And the percentage of job seekers in July reached 28.4%, nearly a 10 percentage point increase from the same month last year, and the highest it’s been since March of 2014. 

A deeper dive into the New York Fed’s numbers reveals why employees are looking to jump to a new gig, and they also back up trends reported on for months: Many workers are unhappy with their jobs. Satisfaction with compensation has decreased 3.2% over the 12 months ending in July, according to the survey, including a 8.6% drop for non wage benefits, and 9.3% decline when it comes to promotion opportunities. 

“The labor market has slowed and flattened,” says Julia Pollak, chief economist at ZipRecruiter. “It’s more competitive now so people are not getting opportunities that are quite as attractive as they were getting in 2021 and 2022 when there was a huge shortage of labor, and people used that period to supercharge their career, to jumpstart their careers, to leapfrog the stage in the middle, and migrate into better industries and more senior roles, etc. People are not getting quite the same boost.” 

In a sign of the dissatisfaction, employees think they should be getting higher wages. The lowest they’d be willing to accept is $81,147 annually, according to the survey, down slightly from earlier this year, but higher than the $78,645 they wanted in July of last year. However, Pollak doesn’t consider the jump to be remarkable, saying it mostly offsets recent inflation.

So what’s a hiring manager to make of all of this? Who has the power “very much depends on the industry,” according to Pollak. In most sectors, workers have less power than they used to a few years ago. But they’re also unhappy, and looking for better opportunities. And that’s not likely to change. 

“There’s going to be a lot of pent up demand for job switching in the coming months,” she says. “Especially when interest rates come down,” as they are expected to do based on comments by members of the Federal Reserve.

Today’s edition was curated by Emma Burleigh.

Around the Table

A round-up of the most important HR headlines.

Known for their unflinching work ethic, German employees are now turning their backs on grind culture—trade unions have started pushing for shorter working hours on top of higher pay. WSJ

Democratic House members sent a letter to the Department of Labor requesting further inquiry into claims that some safety officials are tipping off workplaces before inspections take place. The Guardian 

Economists estimate that the decline in payroll growth may be as large as one million jobs—a far cry from what was estimated in the Fed’s preliminary benchmark employment report. Bloomberg

Watercooler

Everything you need to know from Fortune.

Clothing customs. A job-seeker aired her frustrations on TikTok after a recruiter at a tech company made her reschedule her interview because she was wearing shorts. —Chloe Berger 

Training tech. Tesla is paying workers upwards of $48 per hour to wear motion-capture suits that coach its AI-powered robots—but candidates should be of a certain height and able to walk around all day. —Sasha Rogelberg

Falling in line. Following a conservative commentator’s crusade against DEI, companies like Harley Davidson, John Deere, and Tractor Supply have dropped their diversity initiatives and commitments. —Jeff Green, Bloomberg