The Mets travel west to slug it out with the Wild Card leading Padres

The Mets begin their four-games series with the Padres one and a half games out of a playoff spot, and four games behind the Padres themselves, who currently are tied for the first Wild Card spot in the National League. Remember how hot the Mets were in June and early July? That’s been the Padres since the All-Star Break.

With just seven losses since then, the Padres have taken advantage of a soft schedule to beat up on teams like the Rockies, Pirates, Nationals, and Marlins, but also showed their offensive prowess against the Dodgers, Twins, and Orioles. This is exactly why certain Mets fans (raises hand) were so frustrated by the Mets losing two of three to the Angels on their last road trip; good teams need to beat up bad teams. 14 of their 22 games second half wins are against sub-.500 teams; this is how you secure a playoff spot.

Since the break, the Dads have the second best offense in the National League, behind just their Wild Card mates the Diamondbacks, putting a team 124 wRC+ during that time. The Mets have a 113 wRC+ in the same timespan, so it isn’t as though one team is head and shoulders above the rest offensively, but the Mets have been far streakier in that period also.

By fWAR, the Padres only have three players in the top 30 of the NL (Jackson Merrill, 3.9, Jurickson Profar, 3.6, and Ha-Seong Kim, 2.7), but they’ve been incredibly consistent, team-wise. With Fernando Tatis Jr on the shelf until next month and Luis Arráez not living up to his Marlins past, the Padres could be an even bigger offensive juggernaut than they’ve been so far. Kim jammed his shoulder earlier this week and will miss at least two weeks, so the Mets are facing a less formidable lineup at Petco.

But on the pitching side, the Padres have been the best in the NL in the second half, putting up a 3.43 ERA to the Mets’ sixth best 3.88 mark. Part of that is the fortifying of their bullpen at the trade deadline, acquiring Tanner Scott from the Marlins and Jason Adam from the Rays. While Scott hasn’t been lights out for them, they haven’t lost a game that he’s appeared in yet, which is a pretty clear sign of their improved bullpen. Adam, on the other hand, hasn’t allowed an earned run and has only walked one in nine innings thus far as a Dad.

The Mets are starting to show signs of life after a poor few weeks, stemming from a disappointing road trip to the West Coast. This road trip is even more vital, as seven of the 11 games are against teams that are ahead of them in the Wild Card race. If things go well for the Mets, this could be the trip that solidifies their playoff spot. If things don’t, the Mets may find themselves hard pressed to find a way into the post-season.

Taking two of three from the Orioles was a nice way to close out the home stand, but their 5-4 Citi stay only helped them keep pace, but not make up ground, in the Wild Card standings. However, the two walk off wins against the O’s saw Jesse Winker and Francisco Alvarez, both of whom have not been hitting for power as of late, come up big and, perhaps, can kickstart their bats a bit.

Whose bat doesn’t need kickstarting is Francisco Lindor, tops in the NL in fWAR and continuing to look like the absolute superstar that he is. Even as the rest of the team has struggled, Lindor has continued to carry this team on his back. But with the amount of offensive talent on the roster, it was surprising just how silent the bats went at the end of their West Coast trip. Luckily, things have improved since then, but it would be nice if the team could rise to its natural offensive talent level for this road trip.

Thursday, August 22: Luis Severino vs Dylan Cease at 9:40pm ET on SNY

Severino (2024): 142.2 IP, 117 K, 47 BB, 17 HR, 3.91 ERA, 4.29 FIP, 99 ERA-

Severino is coming off the best start of the season and one of the best starts of his career after a complete game shutout of the Marlins on Saturday, striking out eight and allowing just six baserunners. This turns around a three-start spell for Sevy that saw his ERA jump three-quarters of a run. The Padres are not the free-swinging basement dwellers that the Marlins are, but perhaps a little momentum and confidence can fuel Severino against the Dads.

Cease (2024): 148.1 IP, 186 K, 50 BB, 17 HR, 3.46 ERA, 3.20 FIP, 87 ERA-

Cease’s first year as a Padre has been a good one thus far. Cease has had shorter than usual starts as of late, one due to rain, but he hasn’t seen the seventh inning, or even the end of the sixth, since throwing a complete game shutout on July 25. With how rare complete game shutouts are, it’s interesting to see these two square off shortly after both of theirs.

Friday, August 23: Paul Blackburn vs Joe Musgrove at 9:40pm ET on SNY

Blackburn (2024): 73.0 IP, 58 K, 21 BB, 10 HR, 4.19 ERA, 4.34 FIP, 107 ERA-

In his four starts as a Met, Blackburn has three good starts and one bad start. The bad start happened to come against his old club, so there’s reason to perhaps think of that as an outlier. Otherwise, he’s been good for six innings of one run ball, with limited hard contact and a decent strikeout to walk ratio. That said, Blackburn has yet to face a team with an above average offense as a Met, so the Padres will definitely be more of a challenge than he’s seen thus far. However, with his newly tweaked pitching approach, he hopefully won’t be serving fat fastballs on a tee to the Padres.

Musgrove (2024): 58.0 IP, 51 K, 18 BB, 10 HR, 4.97 ERA, 5.04 FIP, 125 ERA-

Joe Musgrove was on a clear trajectory, improving every year from 2019-2023 in via ERA+, and locking into a very stable mid-rotation starter. However, this year has been a bit of a disaster for Musgrove, with a bone-spur shutting him down for a month and diminished returns preceding that IL stint. Since returning from the IL earlier this month, he threw two solid, if short, outings, so it’s unclear as of yet if the lingering injuries are gone and he can regain his past stature, or if he’s settling into a new normal.

Saturday, August 24: David Peterson vs Michael King at 8:40pm ET on SNY

Peterson (2024): 78.0 IP, 64 K, 35 BB, 7 HR, 3.00 ERA, 4.27 FIP, 76 ERA-

In a season that had a delayed start due to injury, it is beginning to look like maybe the Mets and David Peterson have figured out how to best utilize his talents. Part of this is that he has had exceptional run support this season, with the Mets scoring more than two runs in all but one of Peterson’s starts. They are also being more judicious in pulling him before the wheels fall off, which is something that Carlos Mendoza and co. have struggled with for their more veteran starters.

King (2024): 141.1 IP, 167 K, 50 BB, 15 HR, 3.18 ERA, 3.33 FIP, 80 ERA-

Michael King was a swing man/spot starter for the Yankees before coming to the Padres in the Juan Soto deal. Since then, King has established himself as a dependable member of the Dads’ rotation, striking out over ten per nine innings and keeping his team in games. Over the Padres’ hot streak, they haven’t lost a King start.

Sunday, August 25: Jose Quintana vs Martín Pérez at 4:10pm on PIX 11

Quintana (2024): 134.0 IP, 106 K, 52 BB, 22 HR, 4.57 ERA, 5.13 FIP, 116 ERA-

As good as Quintana’s July was (five starts in which two were scoreless and two saw just one run allowed), his August has been the converse of that (four starts, none without at least three earned runs). Quintana is a veteran and is starting to look every bit his 35 years. Part of this is that, unlike Peterson, the Mets don’t seem to pull Quintana at appropriate times. Mendoza needs an extremely short leash with Quintana, because things tend to spiral out of control at a moment’s notice. Maybe a piggyback pairing with Buttó makes sense?

Pérez (2024): 106.0 IP, 86 K, 36 BB, 18 HR, 4.67 ERA, 4.88 FIP, 112 ERA-

The veteran Pérez came over at the deadline from the Pirates, and has been quite good for San Diego, dropping his ERA over half a point in his four starts and limiting his free passes.