The problem(s) with conspiracy theories about revised job data

When it comes to the U.S. job market, there’s been some tension over the last year or so between the data and the expectations. On the one hand, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates to deliberately cool the economy and lower inflation, which was expected to simultaneously reduce hiring. On the other hand, monthly job totals continued to look great.

It was against this backdrop that Labor Department delivered some discouraging-but-unsurprising news. NBC News reported:

In a statement, White House Chief Economic Adviser Jared Bernstein said the preliminary estimate “doesn’t change the fact that the jobs recovery has been and remains historically strong, delivering solid job and wage gains, strong consumer spending, and record small business creation.”

This reaction has the benefit of being accurate. The downward revisions were obviously not good news, but (a) some economists projected an even harsher revision; and (b) by any fair measure, the post-pandemic job growth hasn’t just been impressive, it’s also exceeded even the most optimistic expectations from 2021.

Republicans, evidently, don’t quite see it that way.

House Speaker Mike Johnson, for example, who’s spent his tenure pretending not to notice American job growth, responded to the Labor Department’s report by saying that “Kamalanomics” — whatever the heck that means — is “crushing our economy.”

This is an impossible argument to take seriously, given that the economy remains healthy. Indeed, the idea that the vice president’s economic vision is “crushing” the economy is belied by reality — our economy remains the envy of the world — as the Louisiana congressman really ought to know.

But Johnson’s reaction was practically sensible compared to Donald Trump’s.

“There has been a report that the job numbers over the last period of time were fraudulent,” Trump said in a speech this week. The former president added a day later that the White House was caught “manipulating job statistics,” adding, “They wanted it to come out after the election, but somehow it got leaked.”

So, a few things.

First, the idea that the original job numbers have been proven “fraudulent” is bonkers. These revisions are a standard part of the process: Officials went with the best information available, and that information has now been updated to be more accurate, which is exactly what’s happened during every modern administration.

Second, no one has been caught “manipulating” anything. Indeed, in 2019 — the third year of the Trump presidency — the Labor Department had a similar report that revised job totals down by roughly 500,000. By Trump’s reasoning, that means his own administration was responsible promoting “fraudulent” job numbers that had been “manipulated” by the Republican White House.

Third, I don’t know who “they” are, but the idea that “they” wanted this information to come out after the election, “but somehow it got leaked,” is simply bananas. In fact, William Beach explained in an online statement, “For those who think the big revision to the BLS jobs numbers ‘leaked’ and was meant to come out after the election, remember that BLS always announces its draft revisions in August and announced this year’s date, August 21, many months ago. It is important to check your facts.”

And who’s William Beach? He’s the man Trump appointed to lead the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Voters concerned about the American job market should probably take note: Trump, even now, doesn’t understand the basics of job data.