The Regression Files Week 3: Will Alvin Kamara, Rashid Shaheed and Saints offense come back to Earth?

Identifying players who have run particularly hot or cold in recent weeks will be the goal of his space over the 2024 NFL season.

Spotting guys who are “due” won’t always work out because my children recently lost my magic eight ball, leaving me powerless to predict the future. Nevertheless, we persist in finding NFL players who have overperformed their opportunity and those who have been on the wrong side of what we’ll call variance. Because “luck” is so crass and unsophisticated.

We now have an embarrassment of data riches with two weeks worth of numbers with which to work. Two games of data means we can get everything right from here on out. Praise be.

Positive Regression Candidates

Quarterback

Jalen Hurts (PHI)

While the tush push should continue to help Hurts get away with it week after week, it’s worth noting that he has run crazy cold as a passer near the end zone. Hurts leads the NFL with eight inside-the-ten pass attempts but has just one touchdown on those high leverage throws. He has just two scores on a dozen inside-the-20 attempts.

Justin Fields (PIT)

If you would have told me before Week 1 that Fields would have 22 rushing attempts through two weeks, I would have assumed my best ball teams would be positioned to win the GDP of Italy. They are not, sadly.

Fields has vastly underperformed as a rusher through Week 2. He has a mere 84 yards on those 22 rushes, good for a 3.8 yards per attempt. His career yards per rush is 6.1 and his career best is 7.2. Fields’ yards after contact per rush through Week 2 is very much in line with his career numbers, suggesting his rushing production will level out in the coming weeks. Fields’ rushing elusiveness rating, as measured by Pro Football Focus, is higher this season than it was in 2023. His four red zone rushes ranks fourth among all QBs.

Jared Goff (DET)

The Lions collapsed in Week 2 as soon as they got down by one score and had to rely on Goff being good. It’s a position Detroit must avoid at all costs. Look no further than Goff’s Week 2 peripherals: His completion rate over expected ranked 24th out of 30 qualifying quarterbacks and his yards per attempt was 29th out of 33. When game script turns against the Lions, Goff falters.

I will mention here that Goff has exactly zero touchdowns on a league-leading 18 red zone attempts through Week 2. One would think that, eventually, Goff will connect with someone for an inside-the-20 score. It at least feels like analytics.

Wide Receiver

Courtland Sutton (DEN)

I fear Sutton will be a mainstay in this positive regression space throughout the season. He was featured here last week and he has to make it again because through two weeks of the regular season, only six players have more air yards than Sutton.

Sutton’s 64 receiving yards, unfortunately, ranks 51st among wideouts because Bo Nix has been so maddeningly inefficient in his first two NFL starts. That Sutton has 49 percent of Denver’s air yards and just 20 percent of the team’s targets tells us that his receiving profile is going to be of the high-variance variety. His 15.7 average depth of target doesn’t exactly scream PPR scam, and Bo Nix’s ugly downfield throwing — he’s completed two of eight deep shots for zero touchdowns and two picks — doesn’t help matters for Denver’s WR1. Sutton is going to be boom or bust unless he starts seeing easier intermediate looks.

For Sutton, the air yards will continue until morale improves.

George Pickens (PIT)

I’m including Pickens here to remind you, dear reader, that not all air yards and target rates are made equal. Pickens has seen a whopping 48 percent of the Steelers’ air yards and 25 percent of the targets and he’s barely usable for fantasy purposes. That’s what happens in an offense that has a grand total of 43 pass attempts in two games.

Without big plays, Pickens will barely be a WR3 going forward.

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Tight End

Trey McBride (ARI)

McBride’s receiving profile is as pretty as it’s ever been through Week 2. He has a 29 percent target share, he’s running a route on nearly every Cardinals drop back, and he’s top ten in yards per route run among tight ends. His lack of touchdowns is bothering you, but McBride’s PPR floor and ceiling are locked in thanks to his separation abilities and an Arizona offense focused on putting him in good after-the-catch situations.

One nagging worry in the back of McBride drafters’ minds might be his vanishing act in the red zone through Week 2. He has just one look inside the 20. That might be due to the Cards being run heavy in the red zone, continuing a trend from the final couple months of the 2023 season.

Negative Regression Candidates

Quarterback

Sam Darnold (MIN)

Darnold is good, as I said endlessly on the Rotoworld Football Show this summer and as the nerdy passing metrics bear out in the season’s first two games.

Darnold’s downfield passing could be subject to the bad kind of regression, however. He’s completed five of his seven downfield shots for 210 yards and two touchdowns this season. No one — not even Derek Carr — has a better downfield completion rate or yards per attempt than Darnold.

The Vikings being 4 percent above their expected drop back rate could help smooth things over for Darnold when downfield passing regression rears its hideous little head.

Wide Receiver

Rashid Shaheed (NO)

After yet another long touchdown in Week 3, Shaheed’s yards per route run sits at a lofty 4.32 on the season. His career yards per route run is quite a bit lower, at 2.1.

Shaheed, despite his early season success, remains a highly volatile weekly fantasy option in the run-heavy Saints offense. He has 169 receiving yards on 161 air yards. That sort of spreadsheet-destroying efficiency is tough to maintain, as you might imagine.

Malik Nabers (NYG)

Before you throw your phone or slam your laptop shut, hear me out. This is not about debunking Nabers’ Week 2 performance as some kind of unrepeatable blip on the statistical radar, but about showing what kind of dominance he could enjoy in New York’s passing offense this season.

I’m feeling much better about my preseason take that Nabers could lead the NFL in targets after his 18 target, 10 catch, 127 yard, one touchdown outing against an admittedly wretched Washington secondary. Nabers saw 64.3 percent of the team’s targets, the third highest target share over the 21st century. The rookie now has 51 percent of the Giants’ air yards. This is no mere accident: Nabers is an extraordinary talent that should serve as the centerpiece of everything New York does on offense.

There are a handful of reasons to believe something akin to Week 2 could be repeatable, not least of which is Nabers seeing 15 of his 24 targets on the season coming behind the line of scrimmage or within nine yards of the line. He’s being fed easy looks and he has the after-the-catch ability to turn those short tosses into big gains. To say Nabers has top-five fantasy upside is probably an understatement.

Alec Pierce (IND)

Pierce through two games has operated as the de facto No. 1 wideout in the Colts offense, causing undue mental anguish to everyone who drafted Michael Pittman, believing Pittman would once again get away with it in 2024.

Pierce has 40 percent of the Colts’ air yards and a 20 percent target share, second only to Pittman’s 30 percent target share. In the massive run-heavy Indy offense, that’s the difference of exactly three targets.

You already know Pierce is running as hot as any player in recent memory. His yards per route run ranks seventh among all receivers. In 2023, he ranked 141st in yards per route run. Things will come crashing down for Pierce in a Colts offense that is 5 percent below its expected drop back rate this season.

Running Back

Alvin Kamara (NO)

You came here to be told not to feel too good about Kamara’s white hot start to the season. You knew NBC Sports’ resident regression guy would tell you what you need to hear as a Kamara drafter: This won’t last.

But it might! Not the touchdowns, but the more stable stuff — the receptions, the carries, the green zone work. The Saints, for all their cool little tricks under new OC Klint Kubiak — more motion, more play action, more creative alignments — have been tremendously run heavy through two games. New Orleans is 8 percent below its expected drop back rate. In Week 2, they were an astounding -13 percent (expected drop back rate accounts for game script, so this is not just the Saints establishing it while up multiple scores against Dallas).

Kamara, for his part, has been targeted at a breathtaking rate in the season’s first two games. He’s drawn a target on 33 percent of his pass routes in two blowout game scripts, a jump from his 29 percent rate in 2023. This tells us the Saints are being intentional about Kamara’s pass game involvement.

And unlike the past two miserable rushing seasons, Kamara is in a decidedly positive run game environment under Kubiak. He has the league’s fourth highest yards before contact per rush (3.34), which has led to the second highest rushing success rate (73 percent) in the NFL. Yards before contact is often a function of a team’s offensive line and play design helping a running back to not get hit behind the line of scrimmage, or even just beyond the line.

Kamara in 2023 averaged 1.8 yards before contact per rush and posted a 47 percent success rate. He has a clear path to overall RB1 even when his touchdown production cools off in the coming weeks. Kamara drafters can resume being happy.

Tight End

Mike Gesicki (CIN)

Fresh off a seven catch, 91 yard performance against the Chiefs in Week 2, Gesicki is about to be picked up in every fantasy league in the known universe. The absurdly pass-heavy nature of the Cincinnati offense — the Bengals are 7 percent over their expected drop back rate — could work out for Gesicki, but he’s run awfully dang hot this season.

Against Kansas City, Gesicki was targeted on 43 percent of his pass routes while running a route on less than half of the Bengals’ drop backs. That scream you hear in the recesses of your mind is not insanity, but regression. It calls out to you as you prioritize Gesicki on the waiver wire, a ghostly siren in the distance. This is normal. You are normal.

He’s second in yards per route run among tight ends, at 2.95. His career yards per route rate is the stuff of data nightmares: 1.21. Gesicki is going to fall off. The only question is how much.