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The Runout: Previewing Indiana football’s Week 11 game against Michigan

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The Runout: Previewing Indiana football’s Week 11 game against Michigan

BLOOMINGTON — The College Football Playoff committee found Indiana football’s resume lacking when it met earlier this week to discuss the first playoff rankings of the season.

The No. 8 Hoosiers (9-0; 6-0 Big Ten) will have a shot at convincing some of those doubters if they can beat the defending national champions this weekend. 

Michigan has taken a step backward this year thanks to a series of missteps at the quarterback position, but the Wolverines (5-4; 3-3) still have a formidable roster that’s a step above most of the teams in the Big Ten. 

Jump into our weekly preview, The Runout, for what stood out during the week, players to watch, a prediction and more:

More: ‘We think highly of Indiana.’ Why CFP selection committee is impressed by 9-0 Hoosiers

Indiana football vs. Michigan: Tale of the tape

  • When: Saturday, Nov. 9 at 3:30 p.m. ET
  • Where: Memorial Stadium (52.626), Bloomington, Indiana
  • TV: CBS
  • Line: Indiana -14.5
  • Series: Michigan leads 62-10
  • Last meeting: Michigan def. Indiana, 52-7, on Oct. 14, 2003

More: How does IU football compare to Oregon, Ohio State? ‘I think they can play with anybody.’

Indiana football players to watch vs Michigan

Kurtis Rourke, QB: Indiana football fans were keeping a close eye on Rourke’s thumb last weekend. He needed surgery to repair a broken bone in his throwing hand, but was back in the lineup just two weeks after the injury occurred. 

There were a couple early misplaced throws against Michigan State — he wore a brace and dealt with some pain — but by the end of the game he looked like his normal self while putting up 263 yards and four touchdowns.

During an appearance on Pat McAfee’s show on Wednesday, IU coach Curt Cignetti said Rourke has looked better each day in practice. That’s bad news for a Michigan team that will need Rourke to make some mistakes if it wants to keep pace with the Hoosiers. 

Aiden Fisher, LB: Fisher was named as one of 15 semifinalists this week for this year’s Butkus Awards given to the nation’s top linebacker. He ranks eighth in the FBS with a team-high 84 tackles (34) solo. He also 3.5 tackles for a loss, 1.5 sacks, three pass breakups and 12 quarterback pressures. 

He will be an important part of the game plan this week as the Hoosiers try to keep track of Michigan tight end Colston Loveland, who is one of the most productive tight ends in the country despite the team’s quarterback struggles.

The 6-foot-5, 245-pounder has 49 catches for 523 yards with four touchdowns. 

“You’ve got to be aware of him, for sure, down the field and on screens, various things, because when you’ve got size and speed like that, you can create personnel mismatches,” Cignetti said. 

His snap chart highlights that versatility — he’s lined up off tackle on 157 snaps, in the slot on 100 snaps, in the backfield on four snaps and split out wide on 36 snaps. 

Fisher will be responsible for making sure there are no breakdowns in coverage as the defender responsible for communicating the calls. He also could be tasked with dropping back in coverage against Loveland. 

Indiana’s offensive line: For the first time since 2001, Indiana’s offensive line didn’t allow a sack in consecutive conference games. Rourke was only pressured on four of his 30 drop backs against the Spartans last week. 

The Hoosiers line is dialed in — the same group has started all nine games this season and played 578 snaps together — but they will face their biggest test yet this weekend. 

Michigan has three defensive lineman with 20-plus pressures — Mason Graham, Derrick Moore and Josaiah Stewart — this season and most draft projections have Graham and fellow defensive tackle Kenneth Grant as potential first-round picks in the 2025 NFL Draft. 

Stewart has the highest-rated pass-rush grade (93.0) and highest pass-rush win rate (25.6%) in the country, according to Pro Football Focus. 

The Wolverines have pressured opposing quarterbacks on 35.7% of their drop backs and that number has topped 40% four times this season. Rourke has only been pressured on 21.3% of his drop backs this season.

More: What do first CFP rankings mean for IU football? Choose your own adventure.

Indiana football: Week 11 Odds and Ends

Spin the wheel: Michigan’s quarterback carousel stopped spinning with Davis Warren back at the helm. The former walk-on won the job coming out of fall camp, but the Wolverines ended up cycling their other scholarship quarterbacks (Jack Tuttle and Alex Orij) before going back to Warren. He’s 1-1 since returning to the lineup with fairly pedestrian numbers — he’s thrown for 288 yards (61.9%) with three touchdowns — but avoided turning the ball over. He threw six interceptions in his first three starts.

Crash and burn: Michigan’s offensive numbers have suffered from all the uncertainty at quarterback. The Wolverines head into this weekend’s game averaging 21.0 points per game (ranked No. 116 out of 134 FBS teams), 299.4 yards (No. 127) and 134.3 passing yards (No. 128). They also have one of the least explosive offenses in the country with just 26 plays of 20-yards or more. That’s the second fewest among all Power Four teams and ranked 130th overall. 

Cornered: Michigan could be missing All-American corner Will Johnson for a second straight week. He suffered an ankle injury against Illinois and sat out against Oregon. Michigan coach Sherrone Moore didn’t have a concrete update on his progress at the start of the week. “We’ll see with Will how he goes this week,” he said. Moore sounded more optimistic about the team’s other starting corner, Jyaire Hill, who also missed the Wolverines game against Oregon. Michigan’s defense has given up 235.8 passing yards per game and has already given up more receptions of 20-yards or more (28) than it did all last season (24) in 15 games. 

More: Why Indiana football paying attention to College Football Playoff rankings would be ‘kiss of death’

Indiana football stat of the week

72.6: It shouldn’t come as much of a surprise after Indiana set a single-game record by holding Michigan State to minus-36 rushing yards that they go into this weekend’s game with the No. 1 rushing defense in the country. The Hoosiers are holding teams to 72.6 yards per game and have held six of their nine opponents to under the 100-yard mark. 

That level of success is unprecedented in Bloomington — IU has only held opposing teams to less than 150 rushing yards three times over the last 30 years (1998, 2001 and 2020).

Indiana football quote of the week

“Every week presents its own new set of circumstances and so there’s a lot of that going on this week. I’m aware of it. But to get kind of caught up on that and lose your focus would be the kiss of death,” Indiana coach Curt Cignetti on the College Football Playoff rankings

Prediction: Indiana 34, Michigan 17

Michigan’s talented defense should prevent the Hoosiers from running up the score like it did in recent wins over Nebraska and Michigan State, but would the Wolverines even be capable of scoring 20 points to keep the game close? 

In their four losses this season, they have averaged 13.3 points per game and less than 300 yards. While two of those losses to top 10 teams, it’s not like they lit up the scoreboard against some of the weaker defenses (Fresno St. and Arkansas St) on their schedule. 

Indiana gets a win on Saturday to set up the biggest game in program history the following week in Columbus. 

Michael Niziolek is the Indiana beat reporter for The Bloomington Herald-Times. You can follow him on X @michaelniziolek and read all his coverage by clicking here.

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