The San Diego Padres Are Primed To With Their First World Series

The San Diego Padres are going to win the World Series. To some, that may seem like a bold prediction. To others, that may not be too controversial. And, of course, any of the twelve teams who made it to the playoffs has a chance to win the Commissioner’s Trophy. Just look at last season’s Arizona Diamondbacks who made it to the Fall Classic after winning only 84 games during the regular season.

But of all the teams in “the dance,” the Padres are, as the kids like to say, “a problem.” FanGraphs gives San Diego an 8.1% chance to win it all, which is the best of any non-division winner. At the August trade deadline, the team’s president of baseball operations, A.J. Preller, loaded up on bullpen arms to backstop the starting rotation that was built for fall, but damaged or missing over the summer.

Yu Darvish missed most of the season for personal reasons, but Dylan Cease and Michael King picked up the slack. So, too, did Joe Musgrove. But, they needed more arms if they wanted to catch the Dodgers or vie for a wild card spot. Enter Preller.

Before August 1^st, he added Martín Pérez, Tanner Scott, Jason Adam, and Bryan Hoeing. And what did that mean for the totality of the pitching staff? Well, in the second half, they had a team ERA of 3.48, and in the last 30 days, that went down to 2.96 – both were 4^th in MLB.

The bullpen’s second half ERA (and FIP) was 3.10, which was second in the league. By the end of the season, the Padres starters had a 3.88 ERA and 3.90 FIP, which was 5^th in the majors, while the relievers were 6^th with a 3.67 ERA/3.51 FIP.

And the pitching is only half the story. The Padres led the league with a .269 team batting average. They were second in slugging (.441, just behind the Dodgers), second in OPS (.773, just behind that same team to the north), and third in OBP (.332, behind only the Yankees and their NL West rivals). Since the All-Star break, the Padres have the lowest K-rate in baseball at 16.9%. According to The Athletic, the team is at least four percent better than the league in every statistical category.

What has this all added up to? Since the mid-summer classic, San Diego had the best record in baseball (42-19), which was better than the Dodgers (40-23), the Tigers (39-25), and the Mets (38-26). Slowly, but surely, and once Darvish came back to the mound, the Padres became the team that no one wanted to play.

Rookie sensation Jackson Merrill learned to play gold-glove-caliber center field on the fly, Jurickson Profar played up to the hype that has followed him since he first came up with the Rangers as a 19-year old in 2012. And Fernando Tatís came back from a stress reaction in his right thigh bone after missing most of the summer, and hasn’t missed a beat, hitting seven home runs with an .868 OPS in September. This dynamic trio have the best WRC+ of any outfield group outside the Bronx.

Ha-Seong Kim’s shoulder season-ending shoulder surgery is going to hurt an already weak defensive squad. But, future Hall of Famer Manny Machado anchors an infield that can mash. Add to that three-time batting champ Luis Arráez. And then throw in that second baseman Xander Bogaerts has the experience of playing in 44 post-season games, making 181 plate appearances, and winning two World Series.

The final “X” factor may be manager Mike Shildt, who has a chip on his shoulder after being unceremoniously fired by the Cardinals after the 2021 season. Preller brought him in this year to right the ship after last season’s 82-80 record and third place finish. And, by all accounts, he has vibed with his players and created an environment where they can thrive.

The Braves are on their way to San Diego after playing a grueling double header in Atlanta yesterday. They certainly don’t want to face the Padres. The Dodgers, who lost 8 of 13 to their rivals to the south this season, certainly don’t want to see them in the second round. The Padres have never won a World Series, but this team was certainly built to do so. And they have been playing that way for the last ten weeks. If they can keep it up for four more, there is a very real chance that less than a year after the death of owner Peter Seidler, a world championship flag may fly in Petco Park.