The Six Pack: Alabama vs. Georgia, Notre Dame vs. Louisville among top Week 5 college football picks

Last week was mediocre for The Six Pack, which stung a bit more because we were so close to a great week. Of the six picks, only LSU covering the 24 points against UCLA was a complete whiff.

Our Cal +2.5 play lost thanks to a late missed field goal, and we were a Will Johnson pick-six away from the under cashing with ease in USC vs. Michigan. Darn you, Will Johnson! Why must you be so great?

The column went 3-3 as a result, but I feel I have a firmer grasp on how things stand than I did during the first two weeks of the season. I’m confident it shows in the results this week.

Famous last words, right?

Odds via SportsLine consensus

Games of the Week

No. 2 Georgia at No. 4 Alabama: I’m a little worried about Georgia! That’s not a phrase I’ve uttered much over the last few years. Even in the context of how good Georgia is, it’s a bit worrisome. The Bulldogs did not play well against Kentucky but escaped 13-12. It’s not totally out of character for this team to play with its food, but it usually turns things on at the end of those games. That didn’t happen against Kentucky. To top it off, they’re without guard Tate Ratledge (ankle) for probably a month or more, and they are banged up at other spots as well.

Meanwhile, Alabama’s looked great. Wisconsin wasn’t much of a threat, and I doubt even a healthy Tyler Van Dyke changes that. The Crimson Tide offense is explosive and the defense is causing problems, the latter of which gives me cause for concern for Georgia here. The interior of Georgia’s offensive line has been phenomenal, but now they’ve lost Ratledge. Georgia’s tackles have not been up to the typical Georgia standard, and I worry that losing Ratledge not only impacts the interior.

Being on the road in a tough environment and a little short along the offensive line is not conducive to an outstanding result, I worry. Still, this game feels like a coin flip. The Pick: Alabama +2.5 (-115)

No. 15 Louisville at No. 16 Notre Dame: I still have questions about how good Louisville’s offense is based its three opponents, but what I don’t question is the defense. It’s good and will continue to be so. Notre Dame has been extremely one-dimensional on offense: the Irish rank No. 11 nationally in EPA per rush and No. 95 in passing. The Cardinals have been stout against the run, and if they’re able to slow down that part of the Notre Dame offense, how much of a counter do the Irish have?

But Louisville itself hasn’t faced a defense nearly as good as the one in this spot, and it’s on the road. I’m not overly confident this unit will find the same kind of success in South Bend. To me, we have all the makings of a low-scoring affair. The Pick: Under 45.5 (-109)

Lock of the Week

No. 3 Ohio State at Michigan State: We don’t know who Ohio State is yet. We know it’s one of the most talented teams in the country, favored to win the Big Ten and possibly a national title. However, three paycheck games in which the Buckeyes severely outclassed the competition haven’t showed us anything interesting. They simply lined up and beat the hell out of teams.

Perhaps this Saturday is when we will see what Chip Kelly has in store for this offense. Going on the road is tough, but even if we don’t know exactly what the Buckeyes will look like, I get a strong sense they’ll blow the doors off the Spartans. Michigan State is 3-1, but it turns the ball over far too often. Aidan Chiles has four touchdowns to seven interceptions, and this Ohio State defense should confuse him and force him into more turnovers. Once the avalanche starts, I doubt the Spartans can stop it. The Pick: Ohio State -23.5 (-105)

Over of the Week

Colorado at UCF: This is a perfect matchup of teams who don’t look equipped to stop what the other one does. UCF has one of the most effective and explosive rushing offenses in the country, and it’s facing a Colorado defense that ranks No. 83 in explosive run rate allowed. Meanwhile, Colorado has QB Shedeur Sanders, Travis Hunter and a bunch of excellent receivers who are not easy to cover. UCF’s defense ranks No. 92 in EPA allowed per dropback — against New Hampshire, San Houston State and TCU. If the Knights couldn’t stop them, what will Colorado do?

I wouldn’t expect many punts in this game. It should be back-and-forth, which is why (full disclosure) I also took Colorado +16.5 earlier in the week. The spread has since shrunk, and I don’t like it nearly as much as I like the over. There’s a good chance this is the most entertaining game of the weekend. The Pick: Over 64.5 (-110)

Under of the Week

Minnesota at No. 12 Michigan: The battle for the Little Brown Jug isn’t likely to be pretty. We saw how one-dimensional the Michigan offense was last week, even in victory. It’s not often you see teams throw for only 32 yards and win games, but the Wolverines pulled it off. Something tells me they won’t have developed an explosive passing game during the week, though the possible return of TE Colston Loveland would help.

Michigan will look to control the clock and the game on the ground, which will shorten the game and make it more difficult to score. The Gophers aren’t finding much success through the air, either, but with the added bonus of also not being effective on the ground. There have been a severe lack of big plays in the Gophers offense, and it’s a chore to try to score on Michigan with drives of 10 plays or more. The Pick: Under 36.5 (-111)

MAC Daddy of the Week

San Diego State at Central Michigan: I don’t think the spread recognizes how good Central Michigan is. Yes, the Chippewas lost on the road to FIU 52-16, but they turned the ball over six times in the game. It was an absolute freak performance not likely to be seen again. Their other loss was to an Illinois team that’s now 4-0 with wins over Kansas and Nebraska.

Offensively, the Chips have the ability to put up points in a hurry. They rank No. 24 nationally in explosive play rate, and they get those chunk yards both in the air and on the ground. Meanwhile, San Diego State doesn’t look like a Sean Lewis team on offense yet and has struggled to move the ball. Defensively, the Aztecs have been solid, if unspectacular, so I don’t see the Chippewas running away with this thing, but I think the spread should be closer to a touchdown than a field goal. The Pick: Central Michigan -2.5 (-110)

SportsLine’s proven computer model is calling for 10 outright upsets in Week 5 of college football. Visit SportsLine now to see them all, plus get spread picks from the model that simulates each game 10,000 times.