The Yankees’ Stars Are Aligning for 1st MLB World Series Run in Aaron Judge Era

The New York Yankees are now just four wins away from ending their 14-year World Series drought, and it really feels like they will not be denied.

The Kansas City Royals gave it a spirited effort, and acknowledging as such is not meant as a condescending pat on the shoulder. They didn’t make it easy on the Yankees in the American League Division Series, limiting them to wins of one run, one run and, finally, two runs by way of a 3-1 final in Game 4 at Kauffman Stadium on Thursday.

All the same, an L plus an L plus an L in a best-of-five isn’t going to get you to where the Yankees are headed: the American League Championship Series.

This is the Yankees’ fourth trip to the ALCS since Aaron Judge’s arrival as a superstar in 2017 effectively opened their current contention window. Yet it is, of course, American League pennant No. 41 the Yankees want. Or better yet, World Series championship No. 28.

Work remains in this regard, and it’ll start with keeping the good vibes against the Cleveland Guardians or the Detroit Tigers. They’ll duke it out in Game 5 of their own ALDS for the right to face the Yankees at Yankee Stadium for ALCS Game 1 on Monday.

The Yankees’ status as DraftKings’ current betting favorite to win the World Series is not a divine decree from the Baseball Gods but indicative of how well their stars are aligning.

Yes, Soto and Judge Could Be Doing Better

If there’s a “Yeah, but…” here, it concerns how little Juan Soto and Aaron Judge factored into the Yankees’ triumph in the Division Series.

In the regular season, they did more than anyone to lead the Yankees’ charge to AL bests with 94 wins and 815 runs. But then this happened:

• Regular Season: 1.073 OPS, 99 HR
• ALDS: .685 OPS, 0 HR

In the regular season, the Yankees went 38-13 when Judge homered, 23-11 when Soto homered and 10-3 when both homered. By all rights, their staying on the green side of the fence in the Division Series should have resulted in disaster.

And yes, Judge’s coolness is an all-too-familiar story. He now has just a .151 average and two homers in his last 14 playoff games.

Give the Royals credit, though. They showed Judge and Soto much fewer pitches in the heart of the zone than they’re used to. As a result, neither got a mistake to hit.

The Yankees can hope that whoever they face in the Championship Series won’t be so sharp. And, for that matter, the high exit velocities that Judge mustered in Games 3 and 4 of the Division Series will translate to more hits.

It’s Not the Soto and Judge Show After All

The Yankees’ success in the ALCS despite Soto and Judge’s limited help can be summarized in three words: Ace, Pariahs and Bullpen.

The Ace is Gerrit Cole, who was shaky in Game 1 but masterful in Game 4. He averaged a season-high 96.8 mph on his fastball and fired seven innings of one-run ball.

For Cole, this feels like an exorcism after a five-start run in the playoffs in which he managed only a 4.26 ERA. It is certainly exactly what the Yankees expect from their $326 million righty.

The Pariahs are Giancarlo Stanton and Alex Verdugo.

The two played the parts of fallen stars during the regular season, combining for only 1.4 rWAR. Yet the Division Series saw each prove they can still immerse themselves in important roles.

In Game 1, Verdugo spearheaded a 6-5 win with his bat and his glove. In Game 3, Stanton added to his historic resume of postseason slugging with the game-winning homer in a 4-3 victory.

As for Bullpen, well, isn’t that one self-explanatory?

Relief pitching figured to be a relative weakness for the Yankees against the Royals, but New York’s pen came out of the series with a 0.00 ERA. Former closer Clay Holmes got 15 huge outs, and nobody could even touch current closer Luke Weaver. He faced 12 batters and allowed only two to reach.

Jazz Chisholm Jr., Gleyber Torres and Clarke Schmidt made lesser but still important contributions to the Division Series. Thus, it took a whole village for the Yankees to keep winning while Soto and Judge took their licks.

Perhaps not how they drew it up, but it worked.

The Yankees Match Up Well with the Guardians

The Guardians were a better team than the Royals this season, notably due to a deeper lineup and one of the best bullpens of all time.

They are, however, beatable.

This became particularly apparent amid a season-ending stretch in which the Guardians were one of the lowest-scoring teams in MLB. The trick is neutralizing José Ramírez, and the Yankees’ neutralization of Bobby Witt Jr. (.118 AVG in the ALDS) is a sign that they’re up to it.

Between Cole, Carlos Rodón, Clarke Schmidt, and Luis Gil, the Yankees also have four viable starters, whereas the Guardians really only have one in Tanner Bibee. And as for that vaunted bullpen, even Emmanuel Clase can bleed, apparently.

The Yankees Also Match Up Well with the Tigers

Speaking of starting pitching, the Yankees got good news on the ALCS before they even took the field on Thursday.

Because of the Tigers’ loss to Cleveland earlier in the day, AL Cy Young Award favorite Tarik Skubal will now have to start Game 5 of that series on Saturday. That takes him out of the equation for Game 1 of the ALCS.

The Tigers are otherwise an even weaker offensive team than the Guardians, scoring 0.19 fewer runs per game during the regular season. And with Kerry Carpenter now nursing a bad left hamstring, Detroit’s best hitter is on the fritz.

The Hurdle the Yankees Couldn’t Get Over Is Gone

Even with all this said, perhaps the best omen for the Yankees’ World Series chances concerns who’s not standing in their way.

That’s right, the Houston Astros are nowhere to be found.

They kept the Yankees from the World Series in 2017, 2019 and again in 2022, beating them in the ALCS on all three occasions. One of those wins was ill-begotten, sure, but by the ’22 ALCS, it was clear that the Astros just plain had the Yankees’ number.

The Astros might have ended up in the Yankees’ way again, but the Tigers took care of that by sweeping them in the Wild Card Series. If that was bad news for the Yankees, it was only because it robbed them of a chance for revenge.

There is, admittedly, a backhanded quality to implying that the Yankees are better for not having the Astros in their way. Yet believe me when I say I’m not so much making excuses as highlighting an opportunity.

There’s a power vacuum in the American League right now, and the Yankees are clearly the best candidate of the three teams left standing to fill it.

If they do, 14 years of frustration will finally, mercifully be history.