Thursday Night Football Ravens vs. Chiefs: Fantasy football breakdown

You can watch Thursday Night Football: Ravens vs. Chiefs at 8:20 p.m. ET/5:20 p.m. PT on NBC or stream on Peacock, Fubo, DirecTV and NFL+

This is it. We finally made it. After all that fantasy football draft prep, the points finally matter tonight. Week 1 is here! And what a matchup we get to kick things off! Reigning MVP Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens take on reigning Super Bowl champ Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs.

Let’s hope for fantasy fireworks for this one.

More of the same from Derrick Henry?

The Henry-Ravens marriage was too good, too perfect not to happen. The same Ravens offense that led Gus Edwards to 13 touchdowns in 2023 now gets one of the most dominant rushing forces in the last decade.

So sign Henry up for three touchdowns in this game, right?

I’ll be most interested to see if Henry is used as the same downhill bulldozer he was on the Titans, or if the Ravens get him some different backfield looks (motion, read-option, screen passes, etc.) against the Chiefs’ strong front. Of course, Henry is receiving a major addition in the form of Lamar Jackson, creating a sort of pick-your-poison issue for opposing defenses.

Do you load the box to keep Henry from breaking through to the second level? Do you introduce a spy to try and slow Lamar Jackson down? Do you spread things out to avoid Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews beating you deep?

It’s quite the conundrum. And it’s hard to see a real negative or nitpick for Henry, other than the elephant in the room: will Father Time finally get to him?

Regardless, his first game on his new team should be a statement one.

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Will Travis Kelce be treated with kid gloves?

Travis Kelce was a second-round fantasy pick in 2023, and to the dismay of managers who sought that positional advantage, Kelce would end up missing opening night (and they had to watch the coming-out party for the eventual TE1, Sam LaPorta).

Kelce returned to form in his return to the field, but things took a turn in Thanksgiving week. From that point forward, Kelce was oddly … quiet. He wouldn’t surpass 85 yards or score a touchdown in any week through the end of the regular season.

Of course, then he would go on to absolutely erupt in the postseason en route to another ring.

The question now is, with Kelce nearing his 35th birthday, will the Chiefs start Kelce’s “load management” even earlier this season? Will they risk him getting hammered by the Ravens’ strong linebacker and safety corps?

I will be surprised if Kelce gets a big yardage or catch total in this game — but it’s not because he’s washed or because the Chiefs are trying to protect him. It’s because of my next thing to watch for …

Will Rashee Rice and/or Xavier Worthy set the tone for the season early?

Rashee Rice was an excellent, much-needed addition to the Chiefs in Year 1. While they didn’t exactly send him deep on his routes, he was an efficient chain-mover with serious YAC ability. He gave the Chiefs something the team hasn’t had since Tyreek Hill — a consistent wide receiver.

Now, the Chiefs will pair Rice with speed merchant, first-round pick Xavier Worthy, giving fantasy fans hope of another DeSean Jackson-Andy Reid connection. You might have to get into your time machine for this, but Jackson had back-to-back 100-yard outings the first two games of his professional career. While I don’t expect Worthy to put up a gaudy catch total in this game, I do expect a 25+ yard catch to happen at some point during those four quarters, especially with Hollywood Brown on the shelf.

And don’t be surprised if Mahomes peppers his two young wideouts early and often tonight, with Kelce more of a third-down/red-zone specialist.

Will Zay Flowers start a second-year leap in Week 1?

Zay Flowers had moments of brilliance during his rookie season, showing keen route-running ability and providing the Ravens with a much-needed deep threat. He scored five touchdowns in his final seven games of the 2023 season, including the postseason.

Of course, Flowers also had some mind-numbing mistakes last season that clouded his outlook somewhat.

Nonetheless, we know the talent is there. And we love his finish to 2023, along with the 108 targets he received. There is no reason to believe Flowers isn’t the 1B to Mark Andrews’ 1A in the Ravens’ target pecking order, and there’s no better time than Week 1 against the defending champs for the second-year receiver to build on his solid rookie season. Fantasy managers who took Flowers as a high-upside flex option should look for him to accumulate 5+ targets in Week 1 — if he does, even better things could be in store for him in 2024.

Are those Samaje Perine fears just that — fears?

Isiah Pacheco was drafted in the second round of most 12-team leagues. Basically, folks likely drafted him as their RB1 or a high-upside RB2 to pair with a first-round running back. So you could hear the collective groans of Pacheco managers who read the news of Samaje Perine’s addition to the Chiefs’ backfield. Perine has long been a third-down, passing-game specialist — an area everyone hoped Pacheco would see an increased role in in 2024.

Color me skeptical that Perine will significantly harm Pacheco’s season outlook.

Let’s not forget that the 25-year-old Pacheco went on a bit of a rampage to end 2023, scoring seven touchdowns in his final 10 games. Oh, and he also caught 32-of-34 targets in those games as well.

This should be a close game between two AFC juggernauts. If Pacheco is swapped for Perine in dire passing situations during this matchup, I give you permission to start sweating (but still, too early to panic).