Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 01/01 – Zone Coverage

Locks

NCAA Football (1 Unit) 3-Team 7 Point Teaser (+120; Odds via Caesars)

Texas vs Arizona St +19.5: 12:00 PM CT on ESPN

Keep doubting Arizona State at your own risk. The Sun Devils are the hottest team in college football, they overperform in every game, and getting this many points with a team that will never quit is great value in my opinion. Now there’s no doubt that Texas has the talent edge almost across the board in this game, but there are holes to exploit for ASU.

The Longhorns are just 63rd in rushing success rate allowed, so the monster that is Cam Skattebo will get his in this game for the Devils. Texas is also turnover prone, and if they lose the turnover battle in this one to an ASU team that really takes care of the ball, they could truly be in trouble. And as strange as it might seem, I actually think Kenny Dillingham has the coaching edge over Steve Sarkisian who has a terrible record in big games. Getting almost three touchdowns in a low-total game that should see plenty of running is too good to pass up here, so keep doing your thing ASU.

Ohio St vs Oregon +9.5: 4:00 PM CT on ESPN

This game shapes up as too close of a matchup for either team to win handily, especially Ohio State needing to win by double digits to beat this number. It was the tightest of games when these teams met in Eugene back in Week 7, and a neutral site at the Rose Bowl should not give either team a significant edge, nor swing the line several points in OSU’s favor.

I think the spread here is an overreaction to the Buckeyes dismantling Tennessee in the opening round, but there’s still plenty to be skeptical of with them. Oregon just knows how to get big plays and run the ball efficiently against one of the best defenses in the country. The Ducks have scored with ease against top defenses all season actually, and a fully healthy offense will give OSU trouble again. If Oregon can stop the run like they did in the first game and force Will Howard to expose his weaknesses under center, then we’ll see a nail-biter where I love catching this many points.

Georgia vs Notre Dame +8.5: 7:45 PM CT on ESPN

The Bulldogs seem to be trading on name recognition and recent history here, being lined as favorites when I don’t think they’ve earned it. How are we not making more of the fact that Georgia is starting their backup quarterback here who is extremely inexperienced? When Gunner Stockton completes a pass thrown more than 16 yards downfield, it’ll be his first since high school, so the Georgia offense is going to be a shell of itself.

I think that forces them to rely on the run game, and plays perfectly into Notre Dame’s hands. The Irish have elite athleticism at linebacker and a safety in Xavier Watts who is everywhere at once. Plus they tackle extremely well, so they can stack the box and dare Stockton and his unimpressive receiving corps to beat them. This is the least scary Georgia has ever been in recent memory, and that’s probably true with Carson Beck under center much less his backup. So even though Notre Dame typically flops in these situations, I can’t see anything but a close game here where I want to be catching more than a full possession of points.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +73.8 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.