Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 01/05 – Zone Coverage

Locks

NFL (1 Unit) Washington Commanders First Half Team Total Over 13 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on FOX

I’m so ready for my Cowboys to be done with this nightmarish season. So if there’s one game left, and it’s a home game, might as well keep up the tradition of getting gashed in first halves. Dallas is about as reliable as it gets in allowing teams to score at will before halftime in Jerry World, giving up 19.4 points on average. That’s more than the Chargers, Chiefs, Eagles, and Vikings allow for their full game averages this season. With Washington having motivation to hold on to the 6th seed as well as get revenge for their wild loss to the Cowboys earlier this year, I see them pouring it on right away to get over this team total.

NFL (0.75 Unit) Carolina Panthers/Atlanta Falcons First Half Over 23.5 (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 12:00 PM CT on CBS

It’s no secret that the Panthers can’t stop anything, as they’re 31st in defensive EPA/play and 32nd in defensive success rate. But their offense has been sneaky good lately as Bryce Young develops more chemistry with his receivers, and that combines to make their first halves high-scoring with a 13-3 over mark this year. That was the story in their first meeting with Atlanta, as these teams piled up 39 points before halftime, and that was with the wet noodle arm of Kirk Cousins playing quarterback.

The first half today is where the Falcons will be their most motivated, needing to win today and get help from Tampa to win the division. So until the scoreboard watching tells them that the Bucs have run away with the game, they should pour on the points with Carolina responding as well. I think that makes for another high-scoring first half between two teams much better on offense than defense.

NFL (1 Unit) Minnesota Vikings First Half Team Total Over 13.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:20 PM CT on NBC

It’s simply astonishing to me that with a full-game total of 56.5 points, this first half team total is less than two touchdowns. The Vikings might score touchdowns on their first two drives, it wouldn’t shock me one bit, as this Lions defense will have no way to stop them. Detroit has no pass rush and they’re depleted in the secondary, so I see Sam Darnold and these weapons shredding them all game, especially early with the scripted plays. Minnesota will probably have to score to keep up with the Detroit offense that is firing on all cylinders, so it’s a good thing they’re 3rd in the NFL with an average of 15.4 first half points in road games.

NFL (1 Unit) 2-Team 6 Point Teaser (-110; Odds via Caesars)

Washington Commanders -1 @ Dallas Cowboys: 12:00 PM CT on FOX

Let’s go Commanders, put me, my family, the Cowboys franchise, and millions of fans out of their misery – I’m sick of this season and want it over with. If Washington gets the fast start offensively that I mentioned above, then they should be able to cruise to victory over the combination of Cooper Rush and Trey Lance that Dallas plans to trot out today. The Commanders currently own the 6th seed and can lock themselves into that spot with a win, ensuring that they don’t have to go to Philadelphia next week. I think they win with ease and wouldn’t be surprised to see them cover the full number today.

LA Chargers -1 @ Las Vegas Raiders: 3:25 PM CT on CBS

Last night’s Steelers loss changed the calculus for the Chargers today, as they’re now incentivized to go win this game. They’ll need this win to ensure they travel to Houston next week to face a collapsing Texans team instead of a much scarier trip to Baltimore. As much as I worry about the NFL fixing it so that we’d get another Harbaugh Bowl in the Wild Card round, that feels like a stretch. With their starters out there and a half-assed effort, LA should be able to beat this terrible Raiders team that would probably rather lose to help their draft position. So getting this down to a number where just winning is the ask feels fairly safe to me.

NFL Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)

0.25 Unit – Ray Davis Anytime TD (+135)

0.25 Unit – Tony Pollard Over 88.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

1 Unit – Brian Thomas Jr Over 82.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Brian Thomas Jr Anytime TD (-105)

0.75 Unit – Zach Ertz Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Zach Ertz Over 4.5 Receptions (+110)

0.25 Unit – Zach Ertz Anytime TD (+205)

1 Unit – Jalen McMillan Over 42.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

1 Unit – Jalen McMillan Over 3.5 Receptions (-110)

0.25 Unit – Drake London Over 6.5 Receptions (+100)

0.25 Unit – Adam Thielen Anytime TD (+165)

0.5 Unit – Malik Nabers Over 75.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Malik Nabers Alt Over 7.5 Receptions (+125)

0.25 Unit – Malik Nabers Alt Over 99.5 Receiving Yards (+210)

0.75 Unit – JK Dobbins Over 68.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Brock Bowers Over 7.5 Receptions (+105)

0.25 Unit – Brock Bowers Over 76.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Ladd McConkey Over 71.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Jackson Smith-Njigba Over 62.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Devon Achane Over 49.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Kyler Murray Over 40.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.75 Unit – Courtland Sutton Over 81.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

1 Unit – AmonRa St Brown Over 83.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – AmonRa St Brown Over 7.5 Receptions (-110)

0.5 Unit – AmonRa St Brown Anytime TD (-110)

0.5 Unit – Jordan Addison Over 5.5 Receptions (-110)

0.5 Unit – TJ Hockenson Over 47.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Jalen Nailor Over 1.5 Receptions (-110)

0.5 Unit – Tim Patrick Over 17.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Sam Darnold Over 2.5 Passing TD’s (+165)

0.25 Unit – Jared Goff Over 2.5 Passing TD’s (+165)

NBA (0.5 Unit) Cleveland Cavaliers First Half Team Total Over 61.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports OH

My only worry here is the Malinsky Special angle with the Cavaliers returning home here after a long, tough road trip. But this team is too talented, too well-coached, and facing a dumpster fire of a defense for that to scare me off. The Cavs still lead the NBA in first half scoring at home with 65.8 points on average, and have already proven that to the Hornets. The first two meetings between these teams saw Cleveland drop 72 in the home game and 63 in the road game. So they know how to exploit a Hornets defense that’s 26th in first half points allowed on the road, and I see another big number out of the Cavs tonight.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Murray St @ Drake -5.5 First Half (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 2:00 PM CT on ESPN2

Being back home fresh off their first loss of the season, I expect Drake to be fired up and ready to roll early. The Bulldogs have been a great first half team overall this season, ranked 51st in average first half margin and owning a plus-6.0 average first half margin in home games. They’ve also dominated first halves in Missouri Valley play so far, leading by 18 in their lone conference home game along with 9 and 1 points in their road games.

Murray State has played once on the road in league play, trailing by 15 to an average Indiana State team. This Drake squad is going to be a much tougher test, as they’re excellent at scoring inside the arc which is the biggest weakness for the Racers defense. With a raucous home environment in a national TV game, look for Drake to dominate early and cover this number.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +73.6 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.