Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 01/07 – Zone Coverage

Locks

NBA (1 Unit) Boston Celtics First Half Team Total Over 61.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on TNT

I’ve been looking forward to this spot for two days. Ever since the Celtics were throttled by the Thunder on Sunday, I knew they’d want to bounce back and make a statement in this national TV game. What that usually means for Boston is an eruption in the first half, and this is the perfect situation for that to materialize.

The Celtics are 3rd in the NBA for first half scoring, but lead the league in scoring before halftime in road games. That pairs perfectly with Denver allowing the most first half points in the league, including in home games, a product of pushing pace and not being able to guard the three. The last time a highly efficient offense with high three-point volume visited Denver, it was the Cavaliers hanging 80 first half points two weeks ago. Those weaknesses should show up again tonight against a motivated and lethal Celtics squad that I expect will hang a big early number.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Utah Team Total Under 66.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN+

Utah has proven they aren’t ready for big time competition, and it doesn’t get much more big time than going to Hilton Coliseum. The best win the Utes can boast this season is over a Radford team ranked 191st in KenPom, and it’s been pretty much a disaster against everyone better than that. The offense just isn’t working, as their high volume three-point shooting has gone off the rails.

I don’t see it getting back on track against the country’s 9th-best defense by adjusted efficiency, even if my Cyclones aren’t elite at guarding the three. There have been two top-15 offenses to visit Hilton this season in Marquette and Baylor, but they only managed 70 and 55 points, respectively. A Utah team that sees its shooting drop precipitously in road games doesn’t seem like they’ll be able to fare much better, so I see the Clones locking down tonight.

Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit) Utah @ Iowa State -17.5 (-110; Odds via BetMGM)

If my Clones hold Utah down to the level I’m expecting, then their offense should do more than enough to cover this number. Not only has the offense unraveled for the Utes, but their defense has been atrocious against high level competition. They’ve allowed 89.7 PPG the past three games and 83.8 against everyone better than Radford, so they should be in trouble again here. Iowa State’s offense is elite, ranked 8th in adjusted efficiency and averaging 84.6 PPG in their 7 games against KenPom top-100 competition. I think the Utah collapse continues tonight and Iowa State runs away with this one.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +74.8 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.