Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 04/17 – Zone Coverage

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Miami Heat +5.5 @ Philadelphia 76ers (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN

The 76ers enter this play-in game red hot, winners of 8 in a row including down in Miami two weeks ago. But how many times are we going to undervalue the Miami Heat come playoff time? Erik Spoelstra, Jimmy Butler, and this team always find a way to make it a game in the postseason and I think they do again tonight.

It’s tough to gauge much from the season series since Joel Embiid and Jimmy Butler only played once in the four meetings, but that was the game two weeks ago that had a playoff-type feel to it and ended in a 4-point margin. This should be another tightly-contested game with the emphasis on defense, and I want to take this kind of number in that style of game, especially with the team that simply never goes away.

MLB (1 Unit) KC Royals -1.5 @ Chicago White Sox (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 1:10 PM CT on NBCS-CHI

Two nights ago the surging Royals took care of business against a bad Chicago team with a starting pitcher making his major league debut. That’s the exact situation again today, so I’m going right back to that well with Kansas City. I’ve never heard of White Sox starter Jonathan Cannon, but if he’s getting starts for this organization he can’t be all that good yet. Royals starter Brady Singer however has been nearly untouchable this season, and has good numbers against the depleted White Sox lineup. I’ll trust KC to keep punishing Chicago like they’ve done plenty of times this season already.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Atlanta Braves/Houston Astros Over 9 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 1:10 PM CT on Bally Sports SE

This series has not had the offensive firepower that I expected, at least not from the Houston side. The Braves have done their part with 6 runs in both games, and today I have a suspicion that the Astros get it together on their end. They’ll be up against Max Fried who has had his struggles this season. As a lefty, Fried puts the Astros into a solid split as they’re a top-10 offense in every category against lefties, including 2nd in weighted runs-created-plus. The Braves should continue to get theirs against the struggling JP France, and this total has come down after two straight unders, so I’m buying low.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Chicago Cubs/Arizona Diamondbacks Over 9 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 2:40 PM CT on Marquee

Both of these teams have deep and talented lineups, putting them on display in last night’s 23-run slugfest. With bullpens being used up in that game it puts more emphasis on the starters today, and neither of them inspire much confidence. Jordan Wicks for the Cubs has been hit hard in both his road starts, and as a lefty he faces an Arizona lineup that’s the best in baseball against lefthanded pitching.

Wicks is also not used to having to eat many innings, so facing this Arizona lineup several times could be a recipe for disaster. The D’backs will likely need to score plenty though to compensate for Brandon Pfaadt who has been rocked in consecutive starts. I just think there’s too much offensive talent on both rosters here, and poor pitching should cause this game to clear the relatively low total.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 2202-1996 ATS (+100.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.