Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 04/30 – Zone Coverage

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Philadelphia 76ers @ NY Knicks -3.5 (-115; Odds via BetMGM): 6:00 PM CT on TNT

The Sixers just look like a defeated team at this point, barely hanging on by the threads that are holding Joel Embiid together. For them to go into Madison Square Garden and extend this series is something I just can’t picture. Just look at Game 4 to see how mismatched they are against New York, where the Knicks got nothing from the supporting cast and still came away with a road win. Being back at home will bring out the usual version of Josh Hart and Donte DiVincenzo, something Philly doesn’t have the answer for, and allow the Knicks to close this series out.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): New York Knicks Team Total Over 103.5 (-110; Odds via BetMGM)

The Knicks have averaged 105.4 PPG across the regular and post seasons against the 76ers. The only times they don’t eclipse this number is when they have major injury issues or, like Sunday, their role players have horrible games. I don’t see either of those things happening here, so I expect the Knicks to clear this number again.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Orlando Magic @ Cleveland Cavaliers -4.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on NBA TV

This feels like the kind of series where the home team has a massive advantage. That definitely was the case down in Orlando where the Magic were the best home team ATS-wise this season. But the difference between them at home and what we saw on the road in Games 1 and 2 has me trusting the Cavaliers to bounce back. Cleveland needs to get right here before memories of last season’s ugly first round exit creep in. The Cavs have the defense to shut Orlando down and negate the Magic’s ridiculous shooting from the past two games, they just left it at home where they’ll put it back into effect tonight.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Indiana Pacers/Milwaukee Bucks Over 215.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:30 PM CT on TNT

Lots of money came in on the under for Game 4 on Sunday after the Milwaukee injury news became official, but it didn’t matter one bit. What I saw in that game was an Indiana team completely unafraid of the Bucks bench and allowing them to get whatever they want at the rim. The Pacers know that they can allow that kind of production because their own supercharged offense will eventually pull away. If Indiana uses that same strategy today then this total will be nowhere near high enough, and I’m going with the over as a result.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Khris Middleton Over 40.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

Milwaukee’s only hope in this game is to let Middleton take over and hope he has another superhero effort in him. It still might not be enough, but I expect him to be the main focus of Milwaukee’s offense enough that he can find his way over this total.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Minnesota Twins -1.5 @ Chicago White Sox (-105; Odds via Caesars): 6:40 PM CT on Bally Sports North

Maybe I’m overly excited about my Twins finally putting together the wins that I expected out of them this season. Yes, those have come against some bad teams, but that’s what they’ll see tonight with the White Sox at the bottom of the AL standings.

And the Twins are undefeated against Chicago this season, with a plus-15 run differential in the 5 meetings. Sox starter Mike Soroka has been getting crushed this season, and the Twins beat him on the run line just last week. Minnesota’s bats should get back on track after a quiet night, and pull away for another win by multiple runs.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 2273-2087 ATS (+88.5 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.