Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 05/04 – Zone Coverage

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Minnesota Timberwolves Team Total Over 101.5 (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 6:00 PM CT on TNT

This fairly reliable bet down the stretch of the season now runs headfirst into 20 years (35 years, honestly) of Timberwolves playoff futility. I’m a little scared. But then I was scared going into the series with Phoenix, and here we are. The Wolves eclipsed this number in every game of that sweep, as well as every game against Denver in the regular season, averaging 110.0 PPG.

Additionally, Denver allowed the Lakers to get over this total in 4 of their 5 games in the first round, and Minnesota had a better offensive efficiency mark than LA this year. With almost a week to prepare for this series, I’ll trust that the Wolves have enough offense to get over the very low isolated total tonight.

Bonus Bet (Degenerate Only): Timberwolves/Nuggets First Half Over 100.5 (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

Another reliable trend from the regular season series between these teams was the first half being relatively high-scoring. All four meetings went over this total, with 109.5 points on average. Compare that to second halves that averaged 105.0 points, and it’s a little backwards that the first half total tonight is only 48.9% of the full-game number. The Nuggets gave up a lot of early scoring to the Lakers last round, so I think we see a faster start than expected here.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 2278-2092 ATS (+88.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.