Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 05/05 – Zone Coverage

Locks

MLB (0.5 Unit) Seattle Mariners ML @ Houston Astros (+100; Odds via Caesars): 1:10 PM CT on SCHN

I’m going to continue fading Hunter Brown for the Astros because he just isn’t getting any better. Houston went winless in his first five starts, then needed extras to make up for him allowing 6 runs to finally get a win when he takes the mound. Brown’s 9.78 ERA and 2.22 WHIP are backed up by poor deeper metrics, so this start to the year is no fluke.

While the Seattle bats aren’t wowing anyone, they should be able to get to Brown like everyone else, especially since the Mariners have a cumulative .348 batting average against Brown. Also look for another solid start from Bryce Miller here for the M’s, especially with him having a very strong history against the Houston lineup, allowing just a .146 cumulative batting average and .522 OPS. This price once again has too much respect for the name brand of the Astros, but this is a big pitching mismatch for Seattle and I think they take today’s game.

Degenerates

NBA Orlando Magic/Cleveland Cavaliers First Half Over 99.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on ABC

I think the full-game total here has dipped to a point that’s kind of ridiculous, but I’m focused on the first half. It’s a Game 7 between two great defensive teams, so it’s bound to slow down and tighten up, but maybe not until later in the game. This series has seen these teams average 101.7 points before halftime, but just 93.8 in the second half.

So the books are smartly shading the total towards the first half, but I think we’ll see the Magic and Cavs find their way over this still very low number. With Cleveland’s rim protectors Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley both dealing with injuries, Orlando has a path to scoring inside which they very much prefer. So I’ll go a little contrarian to the narrative in this one and expect what qualifies as a fast start between two teams like these.

Tiny Nick is 2278-2092 ATS (+88.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.