Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 05/12 – Zone Coverage

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Denver Nuggets @ Minnesota Timberwolves -2.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on TNT

Ok, I don’t know what that was, but it’s not happening again. My sense is that the Wolves had too much time off to get high on their own supply of positive press, and that a more focused effort is coming tonight. Even Anthony Edwards acknowledged after the game that he was not prepared, so expect a much better performance from Minnesota’s star that fuels the whole team.

The Wolves only lost back-to-back games four times this season, so they know how to bounce back. Books have also not been able to effectively line this series, and a two-point adjustment from Game 3 because of an outlier performance seems like another mistake, but one that makes the Wolves a much more attractive favorite. Let’s hope they got their needed dose of humility after a wild 6-game run of success, and the wakeup call pushes them to a win tonight.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Anthony Edwards Over 27.5 Points (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

An angry Ant is a dangerous Ant. He looked very upset and disappointed with himself after Friday’s loss, and if he’s the blossoming superstar we all hope he is, a game like this is where he should show it. Edwards had a bad Game 2 against Phoenix last round and rebounded with 36 and 40 points the next two games. He also had a bad Game 1 against the Nuggets in last year’s playoffs, then averaged 35.0 PPG the rest of the series. I think a big performance is incoming.

NBA (0.5 Unit) New York Knicks Team Total Over 106 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:30 PM CT on ABC

The Knicks were well on their way to eclipsing their team total on Friday night until an awful fourth quarter derailed the offense. That 16-point output was a definite outlier given they put up 39 and 31 in the fourth quarters at MSG in this series, and it’s possible they just ran out of gas. Regardless, I’m not reading too much into it, and expect them to continue their shredding of this Indiana defense today.

New York has shot it incredibly well from deep in this series, and Indiana’s laser focus on Jalen Brunson leaves opportunities that the Knicks should keep cashing in. This is a better number than Friday, the Knicks showed they aren’t laying down despite a ton of injuries, and it should result in them clearing the team total this afternoon.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 2280-2097 ATS (+86.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.