Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 05/24 – Zone Coverage

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Minnesota Timberwolves Team Total Over 106.5 (-110; Odd via Caesars): 7:30 PM CT on TNT

I would expect a home run effort from the Wolves tonight after being so inconsistent on Wednesday night. Minnesota didn’t shoot very well, missed a bunch of free throws, didn’t get much production out of their two best offensive players, and still got to 105 points. Credit this Dallas defense that’s vastly improved, but the Wolves are definitely going to bounce back off of Game 1 and that should mean improvement at both ends of the floor. Their team total has been a reliable play throughout the postseason, so I’ll go back to that well here.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Anthony Edwards Over 27.5 Points (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

Ant bounce back game loading……

MLB (0.5 Unit) Chicago Cubs -0.5 First Five Innings @ St Louis Cardinals (-105; Odds via BetMGM): 7:15 PM CT on Marquee

It’s a no-brainer to back Shota Imanaga here, especially against a struggling St Louis team that hasn’t seen him yet. Imanaga has been dominant in his introduction to the majors, particularly stymying hitters who just don’t have any experience against him. That would be the Cardinals today, and it’s especially been the case early in games as the Cubs lefty has allowed just a single first-five run across his past 5 starts.

The Cardinals are one of the absolute worst teams in baseball against lefthanded pitching, so Imanaga’s dominance should keep their bats quiet the first couple times through the order. That should give Chicago a chance to jump on Miles Mikolas who’s had his struggles this year, especially at home where he owns a 6.20 ERA. Any production from the excellent Cubs lineup should earn them a lead after five innings tonight.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Houston Astros -1.5 @ Oakland A’s (+105; Odds via Fanduel): 8:40 PM CT on NBCS-CA

This is a good opportunity for Houston to jump on a poor starter and a worn-out bullpen for Oakland. It’s been a long few days for the A’s pitching staff, using up lots of relievers and putting more of a workload on Ross Stripling for tonight. The Oakland righty has been hit hard in spots this season, and notably the A’s are 2-8 when he starts with 7 of those losses by multiple runs.

After being an excellent run line bet for a time, Oakland has really fallen off and gone on a 4-15 ATS run. And Houston’s bats have woken up lately, as the Astros are the number one offense in WRC+ the past two weeks, so they should further Stripling’s troubles tonight. While Justin Verlander is not his old self he’s still capable of holding down the mediocre Oakland lineup, so look for Houston to pull away and win comfortably here.

MLB (0.5 Unit) NY Yankees/San Diego Padres First 5 Innings Under 4 (-115; Odds via BetMGM): 8:40 PM CT on YES

Yu Darvish is on an absolutely insane run right now. The San Diego righty currently owns a 25-inning scoreless streak, having not allowed a run since the fourth inning of his start on April 14th. Darvish has simply been untouchable, allowing only 10 hits and issuing 3 walks in that stretch, so this level of dominance is a great way to keep a game low-scoring.

The Yankees are a solid lineup that’s heating up lately, but Darvish has done this against some of the best lineups in baseball. And with Carlos Rodon on the other side for New York, I really don’t see much offensive production from either team. Petco Park for an evening game is where scoring goes to die anyway, so with elite starters in this one I’m seeing a very low-scoring start.

MLB (1 Unit) Arizona Diamondbacks First 5 Innings Team Total Over 2.5 (+100; Odds via DraftKings): 8:40 PM CT on Bally Sports FL

Braxton Garrett has made two starts for the Marlins this season, and he’s allowed 5 total runs in the first inning of those starts alone. The opposing team easily cleared this total in both, and should again here. The Diamondbacks are finally heating up and shaking off the cobwebs of their World Series hangover. They’re one of the best in baseball against lefties like Garrett, ranking top-2 in most standard and advanced hitting metrics. I think they jump all over him here on their way to a big night at the plate.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) Arizona Diamondbacks First 5 Innings Alt Line -1.5 (+135; Odds via DraftKings)

If the Diamondbacks are going to punish Garrett, it will be in support of a pitcher I want to back no matter what when he’s at home. Zac Gallen has always been elite at Chase Field, and this season has been no different with his 1.52 ERA and .200 opponent on-base average. He should have no trouble holding down a Marlins lineup that’s one of the worst in baseball against righthanded pitching in general, and Gallen is no average righty. Arizona has a clear advantage early in this one, so I’ll take a shot on this alt line at a nice plus-juice return.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 2295-2112 ATS (+85.7 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.