Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 05/28 – Zone Coverage

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Minnesota Timberwolves Team Total Over 105.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:30 PM CT on TNT

Please, please, please don’t let this be the last time I can make this pick, it can’t end like this. I hate how this series has played out, but there’s no sense in going away from what’s been working as far as this bet is concerned. Despite having no ability to close as a team and letting Dallas put up a 127 Net Rating in clutch minutes, the Wolves are still getting the job done of finding their way over the team total.

I think there are a couple factors that will help them do it again tonight, even though this number has come up somewhat. First is the absence of Dereck Lively, which seriously downgrades the Dallas rim protection, which is where the Wolves should try to attack since they’ve been brutal from deep. Speaking of which, the other factor is KAT either finally making three’s or quitting taking them, and whichever way that goes should help boost scoring. So in a last-ditch effort game, look for the Wolves to get over this number once again.

WNBA (0.5 Unit) Phoenix Mercury/Connecticut Sun Over 165.5 (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 6:00 PM CT on CBSSN

This total has been on the rise and with good reason. This is a matchup of the 3rd and 4th-best scoring teams in the WNBA, with neither team scoring fewer than 80 points in a game so far. Add in that the Mercury are the 2nd-worst scoring defense in the league, having given up at least 80 in every game, and that creates a very high floor for points. Connecticut’s offense is a machine, and should torch that bad Phoenix defense tonight. But a rejuvenated Diana Taurasi should find ways to put up plenty of points against a Sun defense trending in the wrong direction, and I think it creates an over on this total.

WNBA (0.5 Unit) LA Sparks +5.5 @ Indiana Fever (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 6:00 PM CT on NBATV

I don’t think the Fever should be laying points to anyone right now, certainly not this many. Indiana may have gotten the win in LA over the weekend, but I would argue that the Sparks are the team trending in the better direction. The argument could also be made that Cameron Brink is outplaying Caitlin Clark right now, so this LA team probably has more room to grow. The Fever just finished a brutal road trip as part of their rough schedule, making this first home game back a bit of a flat spot. Add in that road underdogs are 16-4-1 ATS in the WNBA so far this season and I’ll take all these points through a key number with LA.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles -1.5 (+125; Odds via Fanduel): 5:35 PM CT on NESN

I don’t like laying the run line with a home team very often, but this game has several factors that are getting me to make the rare exception. First off is the dominance Baltimore has shown over Boston this season, going 4-0 and winning every game by multiple runs. Secondly, Baltimore is one of the rare teams that is profitable to the run line at home this season.

The pitching matchup also heavily favors the Orioles here, as Grayson Rodriguez has been borderline untouchable at home this year. The Baltimore righty has a 1.14 ERA and .173 opponent on-base percentage at Camden Yards this season, while Boston starter Brayan Bello has been having a rough month and is much worse on the road. Finally there’s price, and the juicy return on this number given the matchup is worth breaking one of my rules for.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 @ Chicago White Sox (-125; Odds via Fanduel): 6:40 PM CT on NBCS-CHI

The White Sox continue to do White Sox things, making every effort to cement their status as the worst team in the league. They’ve now lost 6 games in a row, all by multiple runs, and their past 16 losses have all been by multiple runs. So if you think they’re losing tonight, they’re likely to do it in spectacular fashion. I think they’re losing tonight, as the tattered remnants of Mike Clevinger and the awful Chicago pen will not hold down the Toronto bats. Kevin Gausman for the Jays has been excellent on the road with a 2.66 ERA, so look for Toronto to run away with another one here.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 2301-2117 ATS (+88.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.