Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 05/30 – Zone Coverage

Locks

NBA (0.25 Unit Each) Naz Reid Over 10.5 Points & Kyle Anderson Over 5.5 Points (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 7:30 PM CT on TNT

Role players always play better at home in the playoffs. That helps explain Reid going for 38 points in Minnesota but 20 in Dallas, while Anderson put up 18 at home and 12 on the road in this series. The Wolves are going to need those contributions again tonight to stave off elimination one more time, especially with Dallas likely to adjust after KAT and Ant finally had good games. Off those good games for the Minnesota stars their totals are going to get even more inflated, so this is a good time to look down the board for some value. The number for Anderson has held fairly steady but it’s just too low, while Naz saw his total adjust down significantly from Game 4 so this is a buy-low spot. #WolvesBack

MLB (0.5 Unit) Washington Nationals +0.5 First 5 Innings @ Atlanta Braves (+105; Odds via DraftKings): 6:20 PM CT Bally Sports SE

Washington has a massive pitching advantage tonight and it’s being massively underappreciated. Trevor Williams is having an elite season, backing up his 2.29 ERA and 1.08 WHIP with excellent expected metrics. He’s also done well in his career against the elite Braves bats, who aren’t as good against righties like him anyway. Atlanta is also just 20th in first five innings scoring, so an excellent arm like Williams can hold down a team that quite honestly looks shaken since the Ronald Acuna injury. Getting the half run at a plus-money return is too good to pass up here, so I’m looking for the Nats to be in this one from the start.

Degenerates

NBA Dallas Mavericks @ Minnesota Timberwolves -1.5 First Quarter (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 7:30 PM CT on TNT

Dallas is a slow-starting team, preferring to feel out the opponent and then have their duo of elite closers shine in crunch time, a scenario the Wolves are all too familiar with. But Minnesota has started strong in this series, leading after a quarter in three of the four games with a plus-3.5 average first quarter margin. This isn’t new for the Mavericks who were just 16th in average first quarter margin during the regular season, and with a raucous Target Center behind them, I think the Wolves get out to an early lead again.

Tiny Nick is 2305-2121 ATS (+88.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.