Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 06/05 – Zone Coverage

Locks

WNBA (0.5 Unit) Minnesota Lynx -7.5 @ LA Sparks (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on Bally Sports North

This is a mismatch worthy of the road team laying this many points. Despite Cameron Brink having the occasional strong game, the Sparks just aren’t any good, stumbling their way to a 2-5-1 ATS record. That’s come against a fairly weak schedule as well, with LA only having played two solid opponents all season. That changes tonight with the red-hot Lynx in town, who by comparison have played an extremely tough schedule and are 7-1 against the spread including 3-0 on the road.

Minnesota is making this happen with their elite defense and league-leading three-point shooting, both of which create a lot of separation from this Sparks squad. Every Lynx win this season has come by more than this spread with an overall average margin of plus-9.0 points. This team is really good and should flex their muscles against a bad LA team with Commissioner’s Cup stakes in play.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Baltimore Orioles/Toronto Blue Jays First 5 Innings Under 4 (+115; Odds via Caesars): 6:07 PM CT on MASN2

The Blue Jays simply cannot hit. Their infamous NRFI streak is only the tip of the iceberg for an offense that has dropped to 27th in scoring this season. Toronto is a little better against righties like Baltimore starter Albert Suarez, but I don’t think it matters right now. What they need is excellent pitching, and they should get it from Jose Berrios tonight who continues to dominate at home. Berrios has a 1.60 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in Rogers Centre this year, and his starts have gone 9-3 to the under. I think that all continues tonight, at least early on, to keep the first five innings quiet.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs -1.5 (+115; Odds via Caesars): 7:05 PM CT on Marquee

I understand why there’s a plus-money return on laying the run line here. It’s tough to cover that in home games just by the nature of the sport, and the Cubs have not been great at it this season. But the White Sox have been truly awful at covering it on the road, just 10-20 ATS away from home so far, and this should be another lopsided loss.

The key is White Sox starter Erick Fedde, whose numbers need to be looked at from a home/road split perspective. He’s been amazing at home, but owns a 5.74 ERA on the road which amounts to a 6X difference. If the Cubs get to him like most home teams have, then they get to pound on an awful Sox bullpen and pull away by a wide margin tonight.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 2314-2125 ATS (+90.4 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.