Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 06/06 – Zone Coverage

Locks

NBA (0.75 Unit) Dallas Mavericks Team Total Over 104.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:30 PM CT on ABC

I will go to my grave proclaiming this Celtics team to be highly disinterested on the defensive end of the floor, and it could cost them in this series. Boston never seems to truly care about defense, relying instead on the best offensive efficiency mark in NBA history to carry them no matter what.

Ok, sure, they ranked 3rd in defensive efficiency this season too, and only allowed 101.3 PPG in these playoffs. But the Mavericks just got done averaging 111.4 PPG against the NBA’s best defense, and put up 106.0 against the 4th-best defense the series before that. I think Dallas is seriously undervalued in these finals as a whole, and it’s creating a good opportunity to back them on this number tonight.

Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit): Dallas Mavericks/Boston Celtics 1st Half Over 110.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars)

I think a lot of the scoring I’m expecting here will be driven by Boston, the NBA’s best first-half offense this season. They tend to start hot in the playoffs too, with the Game 1’s of their postseason run seeing them score 59, 60, and 64 before halftime, and production like that makes this total very reachable. But with that lackadaisical defense being even more likely to show up early on in this series, plus Dallas averaging 57.0 first half PPG against the Wolves last round, I think there are fireworks right away.

Bonus Prop Bets (Odds via DraftKings):

0.5 Unit – Jrue Holiday Over 12.5 Points (-110)

0.25 Unit – Daniel Gafford Over 8.5 Points (+105)

0.25 Unit – Dereck Lively Over 8.5 Points (+105)

WNBA (0.5 Unit) NY Liberty -2 First Quarter @ Atlanta Dream (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on WWOR

The Liberty are about as predictable as it gets. This team gets out to blazing starts in the first quarter, throws up on themselves in the second quarter, then pulls away late. So you have to focus on that first quarter dominance because they’re just 3-7 ATS on the season, and I think that continues tonight.

Atlanta hasn’t been as bad defensively as in years past, but they’re having a lot of trouble offensively right now. That’s a good way to get behind early against the Liberty’s fast starts, and they’ve had issues in first quarters against the other strong teams in the league. I have to keep riding this trend, and the shorter full-game spread creates a good number to take advantage of here.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Tanner Houck Over 18.5 Outs Recorded (+135; Odds via DraftKings): 7:10 PM CT on NESN

Tanner Houck has spent plenty of time being untouchable this season, and I think that continues tonight. And as the season has progressed he’s gone deeper into games, going over this number in 5 of his past 9 starts. But I like him to clear this number tonight because of how bad Chicago is against righthanders like Houck. The White Sox are dead last in batting average, OPS, wOBA, and runs scored against righties, so Houck has a chance to pad his stats in a long start. And at this kind of price, I have to back him to go more than 6 innings tonight.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 2315-2126 ATS (+90.5 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.