Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 06/12 – Zone Coverage

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Boston Celtics @ Dallas Mavericks -2 First Half (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 7:30 PM CT on ABC

I can feel the tax I’m paying on this number that reflects the desperation spot for Dallas tonight. Teams coming home down 0-2 have historically done well to start Game 3, but books have adjusted to that trend so the Mavs are laying a sizable number here by comparison. I don’t care though, and I think Dallas responds tonight given a couple of advantages.

The biggest is the status of Kristaps Porzingis, who I would be surprised to see play. Even if he does he’ll be very limited, and that opens the door for Dallas’ key role players to finally step up. The Mavs should finally be able to control the paint on both ends, setting up their size to finally contribute like they did in previous rounds. Dallas has mostly been neck-and-neck with Boston in the first halves aside from that ridiculous opening quarter of the series, and home court should help them to a lead at the break tonight.

Bonus Prop Bets (Odds via DraftKings)

0.25 Unit – Jrue Holiday Over 24.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110)

0.25 Unit – Daniel Gafford Over 14.5 Points+Rebounds (-110)

0.25 Unit – Jayson Tatum Under 2.5 Made Three’s (+110)

0.25 Unit – Jayson Tatum Over 15.5 Rebounds+Assists (-110)

MLB (0.5 Unit) Atlanta Braves/Baltimore Orioles Over 9 (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 5:35 PM CT on Bally Sports South

I get that Atlanta is struggling without Ronald Acuna, but they have to get right offensively today against a bad starter. The Orioles are giving another spot start to Cade Povich who was shelled in his only other outing last week. As a lefty, Povich is playing right into what’s been the strength of Atlanta’s hitting for years, so the Braves should jump on him early and often.

They’ll need to since they send Spencer Schwellenbach to the mound again, part of their season-long parade of no-name pitchers. Schwellenbach has been hit hard in both of his starts, and an excellent Orioles lineup should take advantage. I see this turning into a slugfest with the perfect pairing of bad pitchers, so look for double digit runs tonight.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Nick Lodolo Under 17.5 Outs Recorded (+125; Odds via DraftKings): 6:10 PM CT on Bally Sports OH

The Reds have gotten good innings from Lodolo this season, but they just haven’t gotten a lot of them. He’s averaging just 5.8 innings per start this season, which is fairly key for this total, and at home that drops slightly to 5.5 innings. Lodolo’s metrics at home in that hitter’s park are much worse than on the road, so it makes sense that Cincy keeps him on a shorter leash there.

I think he could be in trouble today with one of the league’s best offenses against lefties hitting in that small ballpark. The Guardians are second in scoring against lefties and have great advanced metrics as well. So if they can work Lodolo right away he’s in for a shorter night tonight, and the price here for him to just meet his average is definitely attractive.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 2325-2139 ATS (+89.3 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.