Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 06/14 – Zone Coverage

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Boston Celtics/Dallas Mavericks 1st Quarter Over 54.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:30 PM CT on ABC

Three games, three unders cashing, so points have been hard to come by overall in this series. Especially for Dallas who hasn’t cracked 100 yet, but first quarters have been a slightly different story. They’ve averaged 57.0 points across the series while all other quarters have averaged just 48.1 points.

That’s a drastic difference that I expect to continue tonight. The main reason is that the Mavericks will have nothing to lose tonight, so I think they come out firing and playing loose. And I think Boston looks to step on Dallas quickly to quash any hope, which usually means burying them under a barrage of three-pointers.

Additionally, I think there’s some positive regression in the shooting department due to hit both teams, but the Mavs in particular, so that should help with early scoring. There’s a reason this first quarter total projects to a full-game number seven points higher than the posted total, and these teams should find their way over it.

Bonus Prop Bet (0.25 Unit): Derrick White Over 3.5 Made Three’s (+125; Odds via DraftKings)

That barrage of three’s I mentioned has really been coming from Derrick White, who has let 27 of them fly in the three games. Replicate that volume again and a 40% three-point shooter like White is going to be right on this number, but the plus-juice return has me jumping on the over.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Cincinnati Reds/Milwaukee Brewers Over 7.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:10 PM CT on Bally Sports WI

I’m shocked to see this total so low, because these pitchers and offenses are just the recipe needed for runs. With Hunter Greene starting for Cincinnati, he faces this surprising Brewers offense that ranks 2nd in average, scoring, and weighted runs created against righties, along with top-5 in just about every other metric. Greene has been hit hard his past two starts, and allowed 7 runs to Milwaukee earlier this season.

But don’t count out Freddy Peralta to allow the Reds to tack on some runs here. Peralta has had plenty of starts this season where he’s giving up far more than he should given his ability, and the games he has started are 9-4 over this total. When these two teams met back in April they cleared this total in all three games with 13.7 on average, so expect these strong offenses to get this one over a surprisingly low number.

Degenerates

WNBA LA Sparks @ Minnesota Lynx -13 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on ION

The Lynx might be getting too good to bet on anymore. Long gone are the days when they were reasonably priced, and now they’re laying numbers that are usually reserved for the Liberty or Aces. Tuesday’s demolition of the defending champs certainly saw to that change, and their valuation in the market is going to be excessive going forward.

But they’re justifying that respect, with all but one of their wins this season by double digits, and a 10-2 ATS record. The Sparks have shown a little improvement, but competent opponents have run them out pretty easily and they’re just 4-7-1 ATS this year. The Lynx might get out to a slower start coming off Tuesday’s high in Vegas, but eventually their talent and league-best shooting will overwhelm LA tonight.

Tiny Nick is 2327-2148 ATS (+87.0 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.