Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 06/18 – Zone Coverage

Locks

WNBA (0.5 Unit) Connecticut Sun Team Total Over 83.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on NBA TV

The Sun are a very interesting team with a lot of talent that can beat you in multiple ways. If they want to lock you down they will, as they showed in a 4-game stretch where they allowed just 57.0 PPG. Or, if they want to run up the score they can do that too, as they’ve done the past several games in reaction to their first loss of the season.

I think the Sun stay on that trend tonight as they continue to make a statement off that loss, and facing a poor defensive team certainly helps. The Sparks are allowing 84.0 PPG this season, but that number jumps to 86.3 on the road. And against the WNBA’s top teams, LA has allowed 87.0 points in 4 games. Connecticut should roll here, but I’ll count on their offense to have the easier time tonight.

WNBA (1 Unit) NY Liberty/Phoenix Mercury First Quarter Over 42.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on CBSSN

The Liberty are about as predictable a team as there is, at least to start games. They absolutely pour it on in first quarters, averaging 26.3 first quarter points per game. Then they fall on their face before halftime, which makes focusing on the first quarter essential.

I think they’re in for another fast start here against a poor defensive team for Phoenix, but it’s a Mercury squad that has really gotten it going on offense. Getting Brittney Griner and Rebecca Allen back has been exactly what they needed, and I think they can hang with the early onslaught that New York brings. These teams put up 53 in the first quarter earlier this season before Phoenix had their stars available, so this number should be easily reachable.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals First 5 Innings ML (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 5:45 PM CT on MASN2

I’m backing one of my favorite under-the-radar pitchers here in Jake Irvin, who consistently keeps his team in games. Irvin has been solid all season with a 3.00 ERA and 1.04 WHIP, but is getting even better, posting a 1.13 ERA over his past 4 starts. I think he holds down a wildly inconsistent Diamondbacks offense, putting this sneaky Nationals team in position to control this game. If they can get to Slade Cecconi who has been awful the past month with a 9.13 ERA, then a lead after 5 innings shouldn’t be much to ask for.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Jake Irvin Under 2.5 Earned Runs (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

One reason for the inconsistency of Arizona’s lineup is that they crush lefthanded pitching, but struggle against righties like Irvin. In the limited at-bats they’ve had against the Nats righty, the D’backs have a cumulative .206 average and .602 OPS. Washington also tends to keep Irvin on a strict innings count, never letting him go very deep where he could allow more runs. And it’s worked, as he has allowed more than 2 earned runs just once since late April, and I think he stays under this prop again.

MLB (0.25 Unit) Tanner Houck Over 18.5 Outs Recorded (+150; Odds via Fanduel): 6:07 PM CT on NESN

Whenever I see this kind of plus-juice return on Houck, I’m always jumping in. The Boston righty has essentially established his outs-recorded floor at 18.0 this season, with only two starts going less than that. But 6 of his 14 starts have gone over it, for a 42.9% clip, but this juice represents a 40% implied probability rate. Plus, Houck is much better on the road with a 1.66 ERA and .173 opponent on-base average, and the Blue Jays can’t hit. The Red Sox give Houck a long leash, especially on the road, and I think he logs another long start tonight.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 2334-2151 ATS (+89.8 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.