Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 06/25 – Zone Coverage

Locks

WNBA (0.75 Unit) Minnesota Lynx +5.5 vs NY Liberty (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 7:00 PM CT on Prime Video

With the Commissioner’s Cup on the line and it being a potential WNBA Finals preview, I’m backing the Lynx again tonight. They’ve gone from laying double digits in recent home games to catching the hook on this key number, so it’s a strange valuation that I think is too big of a swing. The Liberty are about as dangerous as it gets, and as hot as it gets right now, but one of their three losses this season was against the Lynx in a game that wasn’t even close.

Plus, two Liberty starters from that game have been dealing with injury and may not play tonight, while the Lynx are at full strength. This just seems like a situation where the Liberty are once again laying the kind of outsized number that they’ve struggled to cover all season, so give me the best ATS team in the league to keep it close or spring the upset.

MLB (0.6 Unit) Minnesota Twins ML @ Arizona Diamondbacks (-120; Odds via BetMGM): 8:40 PM CT on Bally Sports North

I love when the Twins come visit me in Arizona, so I’ll be at this game with my Twins gear on and a Twins moneyline ticket in my pocket. I feel better about it with Joe Ryan taking the mound, who has been excellent in his recent starts but hasn’t gotten much run support. That’s strange given how hot the Minnesota bats have been lately, so I think they get him what he needs today against Brandon Pfaadt.

Despite his good postseason run, Pfaadt is still a pitcher I don’t trust, so look for the Twins to get a few runs against him and a mediocre bullpen. A Diamondbacks team that’s only really good against lefthanded pitching should get shut down here by Ryan and a rested bullpen, so I expect to see a Twins win tonight.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Toronto Blue Jays/Boston Red Sox Over 9 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:10 PM CT on NESN

The Red Sox are red hot, this has traditionally been a high-scoring matchup, and we just saw this pitching matchup last week. That game produced 10 runs up in Toronto, and I think the shift to Fenway Park creates the potential for plenty of scoring again. These pitchers just can’t get the opposing hitters out, especially Boston starter Brayan Bello who has allowed a .359 average and .930 OPS to Toronto in his career.

But Kevin Gausman struggles almost as much against the Boston bats, allowing a .307 average and .864 OPS. And those bats have been performing at a consistently high level all month, averaging 5.7 runs per game in June. With a solid wind blowing out of Fenway tonight and two dangerous offenses squaring off, I expect this lower total to be cleared easily.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 2349-2162 ATS (+92.3 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.