Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 07/02 – Zone Coverage

Locks

WNBA (0.75 Unit) Minnesota Lynx +6 @ NY Liberty (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on Bally Sports North

This is a revenge game for the Liberty after they choked away the Commissioner’s Cup final last week, so I get why they’re favored. But that game was also a revenge spot for New York after the first meeting this season saw Minnesota run away by 17 points.

As fearsome as the Liberty are, I just don’t think they match up well with this Lynx team, especially in the most important aspect of their style. The Liberty are the most reliant team on three’s in the league, but the Lynx lead the WNBA in three-point defense. Add in that Minnesota is the best three-point shooting team in the league and that can create quite a disparity in the matchup.

Home game, revenge game, doesn’t matter in my opinion, it’s too many points. The Liberty are just 1-10 ATS at home this season while the Lynx are 7-2 ATS on the road and 7-1 as an underdog, so I’m taking it with Minnesota here.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Lynx/Liberty First Quarter Over 42.5 (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

One problem the Lynx have shown the past couple games is early-game defense, and that’s not something you want to bring into a game with the Liberty. But the Lynx have scored well early against New York in the previous meetings, which saw 48 and 50 point in the opening quarter. With the Liberty’s tendency to play with pace and light it up early on, I think we see plenty of early scoring here.

WNBA (0.5 Unit Each) Washington Mystics First Half Team Total Over 40.5 & Full Game Team Total Over 80.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on MNMT

The Mystics were never going to be a good team this season, but there was plenty of scoring potential with them. Their high-variance style of taking a ton of three’s has finally started to pay off, as they’ve risen to 2nd in three-point percentage. This is a very different team than the one that was held to just 68 points in its first visit to Los Angeles in mid-May, as they’ve averaged 86.6 PPG the past 9 games and gone 8-1 over this team total.

They’ve been helped by fast starts, averaging 45.8 first half points and going 7-2 over tonight’s first half total in that span. The Sparks are a poor defensive team that allows the second-highest three-point percentage in the league, so I see Washington having another strong night on offense.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Milwaukee Brewers/Colorado Rockies Over 11 (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 7:40 PM CT on Bally Sports WI

I really didn’t care what the total was going to come out at for this game, I was going with the over as soon as I saw the starting pitchers. I simply can’t believe Dallas Keuchel is still getting work in the majors, but the Brewers are short on starting pitchers so we get maybe the last few opportunities this season to fade him.

Keuchel at elevation in Coors Field should be a cheat code for runs, and the Rockies showed last night they can still hit at home in putting 8 on the board. But add in Ryan Feltner starting for Colorado and this could get wild, as the Rockies righty has a 7.43 ERA and .329 opponent on-base average at home. Milwaukee has one of the best offenses in MLB against righties like Feltner, so they should crush him and the most generous bullpen in baseball in helping to clear this total.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 2362-2171 ATS (+93.4 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.