Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 07/04 – Zone Coverage

Locks

WNBA (0.75 Unit) Connecticut Sun @ Minnesota Lynx -3 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Prime Video

The Lynx have an opportunity to get back on track here after a tough time on the road lately. Four straight away games against tough opponents brought the Lynx back to earth a little, but I’m sticking to my general rule that if they’re laying single digits at home, I’m backing them. It’s a revenge game for them after they lost at Connecticut back in May by a single point in overtime.

The Lynx shot horribly from three in that game, but have since moved to the best three-point shooting team in the league. The Sun meanwhile are a low volume and poor percentage team from deep, but they shot lights out in that first meeting. The fact that it was still as tight a games as it was has me expecting regression to the mean for both teams will create a win and cover for Minnesota tonight.

MLB (1 Unit) Corbin Burnes Over 7.5 Strikeouts (-105; Odds via DraftKings): 3:10 PM CT on MASN2

The Mariners just can’t help swinging and missing at everything this season. They have the highest K-rate in the league, striking out 10.2 times per game, and it actually increases a little to 10.4 in home games. In 7 of the past 8 games, the opposing starter has gone over this strikeout prop, and the lone outlier had 6 K’s while only pitching 5 innings.

That list of starters is far from a who’s who of strikeout specialists, and to be fair, Corbin Burnes isn’t elite in that department either. But that’s why this total isn’t much higher than it is, and Burnes can be filthy when he wants to. Just ask the Mariners, who struck out 11 times against him in a previous meeting back in May. This Seattle lineup only has a cumulative .173 average and .515 OPS against Burnes in their careers, so more K’s are coming in this one.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 2366-2177 ATS (+92.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.