Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 07/21 – Zone Coverage

Locks

MLB (0.75 Unit) Detroit Tigers Team Total Over 3.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:37 PM CT on Bally Sports Detroit

The Tigers are pretty disrespected in the market with not a lot of confidence in their scoring, which makes sense considering they’re such a light-hitting team. But that hasn’t been the case lately, with Detroit averaging 5.6 runs per game the past 15 games, and going 11-4 over this team total in that stretch.

I think it continues today against Kevin Gausman who has been especially awful in home games. The Toronto righty owns a 7.19 ERA and .318 opponent on-base average at home this season, where visiting teams are 7-2 over this team total in his starts. I’m trusting Detroit to outperform their low expectations and stay hot against that poor pitching today.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Oakland Athletics Team Total Over 4.5 (+100; Odds via Caesars): 3:07 PM CT on NBCS-CA

I’m running this back from yesterday after the A’s kept their hot hitting going with 8 more runs. That makes them 13-7 over this total in their past 20 games, with some absolute eruptions offensively mixed into that stretch.

They’re also 6-2 over this team total in their games against the Angels this season, including 5-0 in the games played at Oakland Coliseum. Another warmer afternoon game with the wind blowing out should help with hitting conditions, and allow this lineup that’s sneaky-good at the top to push them over the number again.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Oakland A’s First 5 Innings -0.5 (+100; Odds via Caesars)

The A’s have been a pretty poor scoring team in the first five innings of games this season, ranking 26th in per-game average. But they’re much better at home, and this offensive surge throws those stats out the window and creates value on this number. Oakland is also 6-2 to this spread against the Angels this season, again including a perfect 5-0 at home.

And they’ll have Joey Estes pitching, who has a 1.91 ERA, a 0.71 WHIP, and .182 opponent on-base average in home games this season. His last home start was a complete game shutout of these Angels, so with his dominance and the rejuvenated A’s bats, they should hold a lead after five today.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 2382-2194 ATS (+88.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.