Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 07/26 – Zone Coverage

Locks

MLB (0.5 Unit) Cleveland Guardians/Philadelphia Phillies First 5 Innings Under 4.5 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 5:40 PM CT on Bally Sports GL

The power has been somewhat shut off for both of these offenses lately, and with two good starting pitchers going, I think a quiet start is coming in this game. The Cleveland bats have really been quiet in recent games, only managing 2.4 runs per game since the All-Star break, so I don’t see them having much success against the excellent Cristopher Sanchez here.

Sanchez is deadly at home, owning a 1.50 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and .214 opponent on-base average. But the Phillies haven’t exactly been mashing lately either, scoring just 3.8 runs per game in the same stretch. Ben Lively has been arguably Cleveland’s most consistent starter, and puts the Phillies in their worse split as a righty. Two teams who lead their respective divisions should have a feeling-out process here that leads to a slow start.

MLB (0.5 Unit) NY Yankees/Boston Red Sox Over 9.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:10 PM CT on NESN

Neither of these starting pitchers are trustworthy in their respective home/road split for tonight’s game, and I think it results in plenty of runs here. Brayan Bello for the Red Sox is always worthy of fading when he pitches at Fenway, posting a 6.20 ERA and .301 opponent on-base average. If the Yankee lineup is going to wake up, it should be in their much-preferred hitting split against a struggling pitcher.

And the Yanks will need to get plenty of support to Nestor Cortes tonight who has really struggled on the road. Cortes has a 6.04 ERA and .301 opponent on-base average away from home, and has really struggled in general lately with consecutive bad starts against the light-hitting Rays.

The Red Sox have been in some crazy slugfests since the All-Star break, and are used to scoring against the Yankees this season with the 6 meetings averaging 10.3 runs per game. Given these starting pitchers, both offenses should have enough success to get this game to double digits.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Rafael Devers Over 1.5 Total Bases (+130; Odds via DraftKings)

Devers is the Yankee killer, and he should continue that tonight. He has 3 hits in his career against Cortes, all for extra bases. And against New York this season, the Boston third baseman has a .318 average and 1.180 OPS. Those are incredibly good numbers when viewed in the light of this juicy return, and I’m jumping in on it.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Pittsburgh Pirates/Arizona Diamondbacks First 5 Innings Under 4.5 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 8:40 PM CT on ARID

The Pirates really can’t hit, with a bottom-5 offense overall for just about every important metric. But they can really pitch, and that has created some very low-scoring games for them this season and especially lately. They’ll have Luis Ortiz starting tonight, who puts the Arizona offense in its worse split as a righty, and has been excellent since taking over a starter role. And that weak Pittsburgh offense should not have much success against Zac Gallen tonight, who appears to have gotten back to his old self in his last start. This matchup is a battle for wild card positioning and the D’backs are in a classic Malinsky Special spot tonight, so expect a slower start here.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 2389-2196 ATS (+93.8 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.