Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 07/28 – Zone Coverage

Locks

MLB (0.75 Unit) Minnesota Twins -1.5 @ Detroit Tigers (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:40 PM CT on Bally Sports North

The Twins finally had a power outage yesterday, which there’s no shame in when facing Tarik Skubal. But it looks like Detroit is going with a bullpen game today, so that has me backing Minnesota and Bailey Ober to win convincingly. This season’s series between the teams is tied at 6-6, but 5 of those 6 wins for the Twins have come by multiple runs.

And with Ober on the mound you have a starter who knows how to shut down the Tigers bats, as he has a 1.00 ERA, a 0.72 WHIP, and .179 opponent on-base average against Detroit this season. This seems like a fair price to me for backing another solid win by Minnesota today.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Bailey Ober Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

Ober has been elite in his past 6 starts, and the strikeouts he’s posting have been a big reason why. He’s gone over this prop total in 5 of those games with 7.5 K’s on average during this stretch. Plus he’s averaging more than a K/inning on the season so 6 innings of work – which he’s done in 6 straight starts – should get him there. Against a team with the 7th-highest K-rate against righties in baseball, I think he can clear this low number.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Washington Nationals/St Louis Cardinals Over 8.5 (-115; Odds via Fanduel): 1:15 PM CT on Bally Sports MW

I see two starting pitchers here who tend to struggle in this home/road split, which should cause plenty of scoring today. DJ Herz for Washington has significant issues on the road with a 9.00 ERA in two starts, but more importantly he just faced the Cardinals a few weeks ago at home and gave up 5 runs in a short outing.

And Miles Mikolas for the Cardinals has had trouble at home all year, posting a 6.61 ERA at Busch Stadium where his starts are 7-2 over this total. And these teams have gone wild against each other this season, going 5-1 over this total with 14.2 runs per game. This weekend’s series has seen 18 and 17 runs, so with hot, humid weather and the wind blowing out, expect more today.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Colorado Rockies @ SF Giants -0.5 First 5 Innings (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:05 PM CT on NBCS-BA

I actually couldn’t believe that this was priced at standard juice given the history between these teams on the season. The Giants and Rockies have played 12 times already, and San Francisco is 10-2 against the first 5 innings run line including a perfect 6-0 at home. I don’t love backing Jordan Hicks for the Giants but even he has done well against Colorado this year, with San Fran leading after 5 in both his starts. And fading Austin Gomber with his 5.61 road ERA is never a bad idea, nor is fading the Rockies in general near the trade deadline as they’re always selling off top pieces, so this one looks easy in my opinion.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Brent Rooker Over 1.5 Total Bases (+140; Odds via DraftKings): 3:07 PM CT on NBCS-CA

This is just about automatic at this point for Rooker, and I’m very surprised to see such generous juice attached to today’s number. As I mentioned yesterday before he went 3-for-4 on the night, Rooker is an Angels killer, now hitting .422 with a 1.357 OPS against them this season. He only has 1 hit in 3 at-bats against LA starter Jose Soriano but it happened to go over the fence, so look for him to continue this torrid pace today.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 2394-2198 ATS (+94.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.