Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 07/29 – Zone Coverage

Locks

MLB (0.5 Unit) Minnesota Twins First 5 Innings Team Total Over 2.5 (+125; Odds via Caesars): 6:10 PM CT on Bally Sports North

The Twins will face Jose Quintana today, and the Mets starter has had a run of good fortune lately with who he faces. The lefty has seen several teams this past month-plus that are putrid against lefthanded pitching, but that ends today. Minnesota still leads baseball in batting average against lefties, and are 3rd in both wOBA and OPS.

That will bring Quintana back to earth here and make him look more like the pitcher who drove his ERA north of 5.00 in the first few months of the season. Quintana has allowed teams to get over this number 9 times this season, so a hot Twins offense and a juicy return has me jumping in here.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Seattle Mariners Team Total Over 4 (+100; Odds via Caesars): 6:10 PM CT on NESN

The Mariners are rejuvenated, and appear to not be messing around after an embarrassing home sweep at the hands of the Angels. Their very low-octane offense got hot in Chicago, which is easy to do against White Sox pitching, but they even shelled Garrett Crochet which was impressive. So I’m confident that they can keep it going against Nick Pivetta in Fenway tonight, as the Red Sox righty does nothing but get rocked in home starts.

Pivetta has a 5.50 ERA at home this season, and his starts have seen the visitor go 5-1-1 against this team total. He’s also had trouble against this Seattle lineup, with them posting a cumulative .311 average and 1.122 OPS against him. With the Boston bullpen also really struggling lately, the Mariners should find their way over this number if they’ve truly figured things out at the plate.

Bonus Bet: (0.5 Unit) Randy Arozarena Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110; Odds via DraftKings)

Adding Arozarena to the lineup certainly didn’t hurt for Seattle, and should continue paying off tonight. He’s the one Mariner that Pivetta has a longer history against, and it’s been advantage Arozarena as he has a .364 average and 1.209 OPS in his career against Pivetta. With 4 of his 8 career hits against Pivetta going for extra bases, that’s a good recipe for cashing this plus-juice return.

MLB (0.5 Unit): Washington Nationals/Arizona Diamondbacks Over 9 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:40 PM CT on MASN2

I was expecting to see a higher total posted for this game, and I like the over for a couple of big reasons. The first is how good Arizona is against lefthanded pitching, which they’ll see tonight from Nationals starter Mitchell Parker. The D’backs lead baseball in scoring against lefties and are second in batting average, so look for them to keep their bats hot as they’ve averaged 5.8 runs per game their past 20 games.

Additionally, I’m always looking to fade Jordan Montgomery at home, as the Arizona starter has a 7.82 ERA, a 1.99 WHIP, and a .355 opponent on-base average at Chase Field this season. His home starts are 6-2 over this total with 11.9 runs on average, so look for those factors to fuel an over in the desert tonight.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 2398-2199 ATS (+96.7 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.